The Empirical Study Of Shadow Banking System's Effect On The Stability Of Commercial Banks

With the development of the market-oriented reform of interest rate,profit driving and regulatory arbitrage let the shadow banking business rapidly develop in the financial market.Shadow banking and commercial banks have a strong cross.Shadow banks and commercial banks exist competition and cooperation relationship.All kinds of risks exposed by the shadow banking will be transmitted to the commercial banks.Shadow banking will further impact the stability of the entire financial system.Therefore,the shadow banking has a very important theoretical and practical significance for the stability of commercial banks.This paper firstly analyses the current situation of the shadow banking in our country.The theoretical analysis consists of two parts.In the first part,this paper analyzes the effect that the shadow banking has on commercial banks.In the second part,this paper analyzes the microscopic risk contagion mechanism that shadow banking exert influence on commercial banks.Secondly,this paper thinks that our country's shadow banking business consists of three categories.They are shadow banking in the banking system,non-bank financial institutions shadow banking and the folk finance shadow banking.This paper estimates the total size of China's shadow banking from 2006 to 2015.In this paper,the stability of the 60 sample commercial banks in China from 2006 to 2015 is calculated by using the comprehensive index score method.On this basis,the panel data model is used to analyze the influence that shadow banking has on the stability of the sixty commercial banks and different types of commercial banks.The panel data model is also used to analyze the influence that different types of shadow banking have on the stability of commercial banks.There are three research results.Firstly,the shadow banking has an inverted U type relationship on the stability of the banking system and the threshold value is RMB 25.308 trillion.Secondly,shadow banking has different impact on the stability of different types of banks.The shadow banking size has U type effect on the stability of the state owned banks.The shadow banking scale has inverted U type relationship on the stability of the city commercial banks and foreign banks.The shadow banking scale has a negative effect of first-order lag on the stability of the joint stock commercial banks.The shadow banking has not significant effect on the stability of the rural commercial bank.Thirdly,different types of shadow banking have differenteffects on the stability of the banking system.The shadow banking in the banking system has a positive effect with time delay on the stability of the banking system.Non-bank financial institutions shadow banking and the folk finance shadow banking have a negative effect with time delay on the stability of the banking system.The three types shadow banking all have inverted U type relationship on the stability of the banking system and the threshold values are 6.296 trillion yuan,8.150 trillion yuan and 18.937 trillion yuan respectively.Finally,this paper presented policy recommendations relevant to empirical conclusions.Firstly,China should build a multi-level and differentiated financial system.China should encourage financial reform and innovation to support the real economy.Secondly,China should build a comprehensive statistical monitoring system of shadow banking.China should strengthen the coordination and cooperation of the supervision department.Thirdly,China should implement the classification supervision principles for different types of shadow banking.Last but not least,commercial banks should strengthen risk management to resist the impact of shadow banking.