The Southern Hemisphere’s Food Supply And China’s Food Security In The Perspective Of Seasonal Complementary

The problem of food security is a strategic problem which every country is very concerned about. It is not only related to the stability and economic stability, political social growth, but also directly related to the survival of the people. China is the most populous country in the world, but China’s cultivated land resources are very limited, the contradiction between people and land is more prominent, China use about 7% of the world’s arable land to feed 22% of the world’s population.Many people and little land is the basic condition of our country, with the development of China’s economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, China’s demand for food is higher than before, domestic food production is not sufficient to meet China’s demand for food. Based on China’s land resources,the implementation of China’s food security in the future needs to make full use of two kinds of resources including domestic and foreign market. In the use of foreign resources, the northern hemisphere is the traditional sources of China’s food imports, due to the differences of the geographical location and the harvest season between the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, the grain yield increased in the southern hemisphere will form seasonal complementary with the northern hemisphere, the seasonal difference will make monthly import diversification in China, so as to reduce the china’ monthly food imports fluctuations, reduce our soybean storage costs. China can reduce the annual fluctuation with more food imports from the southern hemisphere, improve the stability of supply and price, which is worthy of our attention and research.This study takes soybean which is China’s import dependency for maximum crop as an example, first of all,the study analyses the basic situation of China’s soybean supply and demand, China’s soybean import dependency reached more than 80%, china’ soybean imports reached more than 60 million tons in 2013; secondly, this study analyses the contribution of the southern hemisphere grain growth on the world market supply through quantitative analysis, using residual method to measure the southern hemisphere grain growth on the world market supply stability, results show that, the southern hemisphere grain growth has important contribution to the global food supply growth, it reduces the dynamic fluctuation in the world market supply. In addition, this paper makes a descriptive analysis using the relevant data of China’s increasing use of southern culture on the use of the international grain market to reduce the impact of supply fluctuation and price fluctuation, and makes a correlation analysis between the southern hemisphere grain growth and China’s monthly import fluctuation coefficient, the results show that, making full use of Southern Hemisphere food source reduces the quantity and price of China’s food import fluctuation. This article makes Grainger causality test on the southern hemisphere grain growth and the world market price of soybean levels, results show that, the southern hemisphere grain growth and the world market price of soybean has a causal relationship, further more, the paper carries out regression analysis on the southern hemisphere grain growth and the world market price level through establishing simultaneous equations model,the results show that, the southern hemisphere grain growth can reduce the level of world market price of soybean. At the same time, China’s imports freight from Brazil soybean is lower than the USA, which can reduce our freight. This study provides reference for our country to make better use of the world’s food resources, ensuring food security in China, this paper believes that the southern hemisphere countries grain growth potential, future growth in grain production is in the southern hemisphere, China’s future food security need to improve the yield of grain in China through science and technology means, also we should strengthen the cooperation with the southern hemisphere countries, strengthen China Africa cooperation, promote the establishment of a free trade zone between China and Brazil, import food from foreign market to make up China’s domestic demand. In addition, from other species, China should make full use of the world wheat and corn market, especially the grain market in the southern hemisphere.