Analysis On Changing Patterns, Security And Control Measures Of Food Product In Jiangxi Province

Food security policy has been the key policy of agriculture in worldwide countries.Most of the governments pay more attention to food security now. Due to the discrepancyof regional resources and the difference of food productivity among vast land areas ofChina, it is very important to study regional food security in our country. In Jiangxiprovince, grain proportion, food production and agricultural structure are unreasonable to alarge extend at present. If this pattern lasts for a long time, food production security wouldbe impossible. The food productivity security is prerequisite in this study; this will behelpful to protrude the food production efficiency, also beneficial to regulate theagricultural structure, food production structure and to optimize the food production factors.The significance of this research is:â‘ In order to eliminate the varieties among differentkinds of foods, the output of all kinds of food is transformed into energy to study. It canovercome the old frame which measured by original materials of foods, also can representthe real essence of food well and truly. This will be beneficial to improve the food diversityand nutrition balance, and to adjust the agricultural structural reasonably. Then, theagricultural production can be arranged according to the conditions of local areas.â‘¡In thisstudy, the food security is primary important. At the same time, we emphasized theimportance of the food production efficiency. The total factors productivity (TFP) and totalfactors related to productivity (TFRP) were estimated by TFP theory and the data envelopeanalysis (DEA) method. This is helpful to develop the food production healthily andheighten the level of management, as well as to improve the technology of food productionby the scientific way;â‘¢To set up a reasonable food sustainable security system, all theindexes, such as the food productivity, food supply ability, food production power, foodproduction resistance and their relation with food security were considered synthetically.In this study, food fluctuant indexes which reflect short-term food fluctuation and variation coefficients which reflect long-term trend of food fluctuation were selected toanalysis the variation of food species and the feature of food spatial-temporal scalefluctuation. The relationship of the fluctuation tendency between food and productionfactors was studied by grey relation analysis. The characteristics of time scales, periodicvariance and main periodic variance of Jiangxi food production were analyzed with waveletanalysis. The food production TFRP of Jiangxi province was calculated with DEA. Thefood production TFP was studied by Malmquist productivity index. The consumption ofchemical fertilizers, irrigation area and drought area etc. were selected to analysis by thedrive factors related to food production with SPSS 11.5. 22 indexes, such as theconsumption of chemical fertilizers, irrigation area and total food etc. were selected toassess the degree of sustainable food security with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) inJiangxi. Multi-objective programming with multi-objective attain and MatLab7.0 by mutualmulti-lap were used to optimize the layout of Jiangxi food production.Based on the authors'studies, the results are as follows:(1) From 1978 to 2003, the average fluctuation index of the total food was smallerthan the grain. This showed the fluctuation of total food is more stable. Because consistingof various foods, the total food has certain compensatory role among different foods. Thisis also an important reason to research food security. Further analysis showed that therewere close correlation between the Grain yield, Oil yield, Meat yield and the total food. Theorder of grey relation was as follows: Grain yield＞Oil yield＞Meat yield＞Sugar yield＞Eggs yield＞Fruits yield＞milk yield. Thus, effective production of Grain, Oil and Meatetc. were firstly required to guarantee total food security.(2) The wavelet method can be used to study the periodical variation of foodproduction in Jiangxi province. The result of wavelet analysis showed the food yielding andthe grain yielding per unit of arable land were positively correlated with total food atsignificant level. The periodic fluctuations between them were synchronization. Among theyear of 10, 24 and 34 during the period from 1949 to 2004, the periodic fluctuation of totalfood in the 34 years was more obvious. Whether at the bigger scales (34years), the mediumscales (24years)or at the smaller scales (10years), the wavelet coefficients implied the totalfood of Jiangxi province had been declining from 2000. Effective measures should be usedto increase the input of material and technology resources, as well as to improve theregulative ability of total food production. (3) It was showed that the tendency coincided well between food fluctuation index andthe TFRP in Jiangxi from 1978 to 2003. The food fluctuation was steady or food expressedgreater positive fluctuation when TFRP was higher. The production factors were arrangedreasonable. However, the food expressed greater negative fluctuation when TFRP waslower. This indicated that between food fluctuation and food production efficiency relationwere relative closely. At the same time, significantly positive correlation (r=0.922) waspresented between total food and the guarantee degree of food production factors from1978 to 2003 in Jiangxi. It indicated that Jiangxi total food was also affected by input offood productivity. The decrease of total food in Jingxi from 2000 to2003 was mainly causedby a downward guarantee degree of food production factors. Food production is the keyfactor to food security. Food security also depends on ideal integration of food productionfactors. From this, the sustainable growth mechanism of food production should beconcluded, which is the guarantee degree of food production factors→food productionefficiency (TFRP)→food stability→gross food→sustained development of food. Therefore,to increase the input of food production factors would improve the guarantee degree of foodproduction factors. Then, ideal technologies can be used to enhance the productionefficiency.(4) The drive factor analysis showed that the consumption of chemical fertilizers (x₅),irrigation area (x₉), sown area (x₁), input of funds, power of agriculture machinery (x₄),rate of forest overlay (x₁₄) and price index of farm produce were the major positive strongdrive factors for food production. In contrast, engel's coefficient(x₇) (componentmatrix/-0.744) should be a negative strong drive factor, because a high engel's coefficientvalue implies a high defrayal and lack supply of food. The lose area of soil and water (x₁₀),the area of affected (x₈) were the minor negative drive factor of food production.Significant positive correlation was presented between the areas of affected; lose area ofsoil and water and the nature disasters. However, significant negative correlation waspresented between the labor force (x₂) and the nature disasters. In other words, the naturedisasters of affects food production was controlled by the labor force. To some extent, thelosing caused by the nature disasters can be decreased to a minimum level by manpower.The analysis to the nature disasters in Jiangxi indicated that the area of flood(z₁) and lowtemperature(z₄), the no harvested area due to flood(z₅) and low temperature (z₈)were themajor strong drive factors, and the disaster area of drought(z₂) and wind-hail(z₃), the no harvested area due to drought(z₆) and wind-hail(z₇)were minor strong drive factors.(5) Sustainable food security in Jiangxi increased gradually from 1978 to 1997 by theevaluating of sustainable food security. In 1998, though the security degree reduced greatlybecause of flood disaster, it was still secure. In 1999, sustainable food security degreeincreased rapidly. In 2003, security degree declined to 0.7972. It suggested foodproductivity was instable and should be concerned greatly. The food guarantee factors andsocioeconomic factors security level are low, this is a hidden trouble of sustainable foodsecurity in Jiangxi. The food production factor, resource factor and climate factor are athigh security levels, food security has been guaranteed. The security level of sustainableenvironmental factor is strengthening; this is helpful to rise sustainable food security degreein Jiangxi. In Jiangxi province, according to the present ratio of food production area(75.1%) and the highest cropping index (262.7%), the forecast shows the food productionof 2020 will be in a state of insecurity. To solve the hidden trouble of food security, the "λ"and "ρ" index must maintain the proper ratios, if the area of cultivation land is unchanged,the proper ratio the "λ" and "ρ" index should be 82%/279.6% or 83%/276.2%; if the areaincrease 5 percent and 10 percent respectively than present, the proper ratio should be79%/275.7% or 80%/272.2% and 76%/271.5% or 77%/268% respectively.In this study, the fluctuant feature of food under spatial and temporal scale, periodicrules of food fluctuation, and the relation among food fluctuation, production factors andTFRE in Jiangxi province were elucidated. Food production efficiency combining withsustainable food security assessment will be helpful to emphasize food productionefficiency and ideal integration of food production factors, also will be beneficial tosustainable food security.