Temporal And Spatial Analysis Of Urbanization And Economic Growth In China

Urbanization is the only way for a country’s economic development.The level of urbanization is an important reflection of the economic and social development level.Generally,there is an interactive relationship between the urbanization and economic growth.In recent years,however,China’s economic growth began to decline affected by domestic and international macroeconomic,and the trend of economic slowdown would be obvious.Because of economic development dilemma caused by severe economic situation at home and abroad,there is anurgent need to search a growth pole to support economic development.Therefore, based on the relationship between urbanization and economic growth theory,the two dimensions of time and space was used to analyze the role of the relationship between urbanization and economic growth.And the ultimate goal is to achieve economic growth by promoting urbanization in this article.Firstly,it analyzed the evolution of China’s urbanization and economic growth in this paper.On one hand,it analyzed the characteristics of urbanization in China from the urban and rural population distribution,the number changed of villages and towns,changes in urban built-up area and the differences of the level of urbanization among different regions.It found that:China’s urban population increased linearly since 1978,while the rural population reduced.Most of villages were merged,which constantly improve the system of township.Besides,population migration from rural areas to urban increased the demand for urban space,which caused the city continued to expand outward and a significant increase in built-up area.Affected by the economic development, resources and environment and geographical location and other factors, China’s urbanization level showed significant regional differences,which urbanization in east area higher than middle-west area.On the other hand,it also analyzed the characteristics of economic growth from changes of the total economy and speed, changes of the economic structure and economic differences among different areas.It also found that:the total economy kept increasing,but the speed of economy in the adjustment on the high level,while trend to decline in recent years.Changes in industry, income distribution, consumption, employment and other structures to promote optimal adjustment of economic structure.Affected by the non-balanced development strategy, a big gap of the regional economy exists in the different areas.Secondly,by observing the trends of urbanization and economic growth,it found that them changed in the direction.By used Eviews software,it found long-term equilibrium relationship exist in China’s urbanization and economic growth from year 1995 to 2014.The empirical results showed each 1% increase in urbanization will promote economic growth 2.9176%.Through the establishment of the error correction model, we found that the long-term equilibrium relationship is maintained in the short-term dynamic adjustment.And then the causal relationship between the two Granger test and found that urbanization promote economic growth to more obvious,while economic growth promote urbanization is not obvious, only five time lag constitute urbanization Granger reasons.It reflected the urbanization contribution to rapid economic growth was stronger than economic growth contribution to urbanization in the last two decades.Thirdly,to year 2000,2005,2010 and 2014 as the year of observation,this paper analyzed the spatial relationship between China’s urbanization and economic growth from the perspective of space by used Geoda software.Spatial Correlation analysis showed that Chinese provinces of urbanization and per capita GDP in the spatial distribution appeared strong correlation,namely the existence of spatial dependence.Spatial agglomeration of urbanization and per capita GDP has become increasingly evident.Then establishment of spatial econometric model found the results of SLM model and SEM model better than normal OLS model.By comparing model results,the neglect of spatial inter-regional agglomeration and spillover effects would overestimate the impact of urbanization on economic growth.Thus, using spatial econometric model can be more truly reflect the urbanization contribution to economic growth.Finally,based on the above analysis,three prospects to the reality were put forward.At the same time promoting the urbanization process,we should pay more attention to production and living in rural areas.By accelerating the integration of rural land and villages promote agricultural industrialization and modernization.What’s more,the existence of regional differences ask us to take the different policies to promote urbanization then contribute to economic growth.Lastly,we should strengthen regional cooperation.