An Analysis Of The Long-Term Trends Of China's Economic Growth Rate And The Driving Factors Of Economic Growth

It is of great significance to correctly assess China's current macroeconomic situation and to adopt accurate macroeconomic policies.After 30 years of reform and opening up the rapid growth,China's economic growth into the so-called economic growth "new normal".Which led to China's economic growth can return to high-speed growth channel discussion.Is essentially a discussion of the long-term trend of China's growth rate and the potential drivers of economic growth.The long-term trend of the economic rate is measured by the economic theory and the development of measurement methods.In the traditional growth rate trend measurement method,mainly through the measurement of China's TFP or labor productivity trends to reflect the evolution.The indicators used are usually a single sequence or a minority sequence of the same frequency.With the development of econometric theory,the DFM model proposed by Geweke,Sargent,Sims(1997)is widely used in macroeconomic research.The main research method of this paper is based on the standard DFM model to extend it to the mixed DFM model.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:First of all,on the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature,this paper puts forward the model framework of this paper.In the mixed DFM model.The model has two advantages over previous time series models such as ARMA and VAR.First,in the use of data indicators.Able to accept the number of more indicators and different frequency of data complement each other to a more comprehensive reflection of the macroeconomic performance.Second,in the estimation of parameters,the traditional measurement model because of the existence of the lack of freedom requires more data.The DFM model uses the Gibbs sampling estimate after applying a certain priori to the parameters,and the estimated parameter stability is better.Secondly,by measuring the long-term trend of the growth rate of the DFM model,there is a whole control of the macroeconomic trend.And then through the variable coefficient of the Cobb Douglas production function of the economic growth of the underlying drivers to break down.Finally,the study in this paper argues.From 1997 to 2011 growth rate in the range of 9.5%to 10%fluctuations.Which in 2008 by the global financial crisis had a huge impact.After 11 years,the long-term trend of growth has shown a declining trend.Until the most recent year,close to about 7%growth rate.From the current long-term trend,the downward trend has eased.In addition,from the economic growth rate of volatility,the overall trend is the first decline in the decline in the trend,in particular,the volatility in 2008 is more obvious.From the data of recent years,the volatility has slowed down the situation.Indicating that the stability of the economy has increased,but also from the side to confirm the effectiveness of supply side reform.Judging from the decomposition of the drivers of economic growth,investment has continued to contribute to economic growth,although the output elasticity of capital has declined.As the demographic structure changes,the role of labor factors slows down.The role of total factor productivity has improved in recent years.Therefore,this article believes that from the following three aspects to promote sustained economic growth:to enhance investment efficiency;open population policy,enhance the quality of the population;accelerate innovation.