The Study On Influence Of Oil Price Fluctuation On China’s Economy And Industry And Countermeasures

Crude oil is an important strategic resource. Oil price fluctuation will threaten economic construction and China’s energy security. The important issue in the energy field is that how to get enough crude oil supply continuously at reasonable price and in an safe way.Firstly, a historical review of crude oil price fluctuation periodicity is carried out and four periods of crude oil price fluctuation is put forward, such as the low oil price era monopolized by multinational corporations, oil pricing era controlled by OPEC, an unsettled and unordered oil pricing era and a financial era of oil pricing. Research results on crude oil price fluctuation are summarized. The significance of the topic and research ideas and structural feature of this paper is expounded.Secondly, based on the comprehensive introductions of oil natural property and development and utilization history and oil gas resource distribution and the world oil market formation and development, pricing systems of oil trade and the international crude oil and refined oil pricing mechanism is analyzed in detail, and especially China’s crude oil and refined oil pricing mechanism and the market oriented reform process is emphasized and summarized. According to the long-term and short-term analyses of the trends of crude oil price, four long-term supply factors of crude oil price fluctuation are discussed from a market perspective, including oil reserves and distribution, oil production capacity and residual capacity and production technology progress, oil production cost and investment, the world oil market structure, system and organizations. Four long-term demand factors of crude oil price fluctuation are discussed, including the level of the economic growth and development, economic and energy structure and macroeconomic situation, alternative energy source and technology progress, oil utilization mode and efficiency, social lifestyle and oil consumption custom. The short-term factors of crude oil price fluctuation are discussed, including political factors, financial factors and other factors.Then seven kinds of conduction mechanisms of crude oil price fluctuation are studied, such as supply shock mechanism, income transfer mechanism, adjustment cost mechanism or department transfer mechanism, real balance effect mechanism, monetary policy adjustment mechanism, labor market regulation mechanism and uncertainty adjustment mechanism. At the present stage conduction paths of crude oil price fluctuation in economy are summarized and analyzed. The influences of oil price fluctuation are explained in detail on oil upstream and downstream industry chain, bulk energy industry, transportation industry and logistics industry, textile and garment industry, agriculture and pharmaceuticals industry, iron and steel metallurgy industry and automobile manufacturing industry.Finally, the strategies and countermeasures on the protection and relief of crude oil price fluctuations risk in the realm of energy security are fully put forward, which involve four main aspects, including adjusting economic structure and realizing economic transformation and upgrading, constructing China’s energy security and risk prevention and control system, developing our oil financial strategies, improving the modern oil financial market system, carrying out international energy cooperation and promoting the establishment of the stable and reasonable world crude oil price adjustment mechanism. These proposals possess the certain reference value and instruction significance.