| Land price is an important means to regulate land resource allocation, which can reflect changes in the market conditions directly. In this paper, it selected Dazhou city as the research object and collected the urban land price monitoring data results in 2008-2012. Guided by land economics and geostatistics principles and methods, the time variation trend of land price in Dazhou city was analyzed and predicted by establishing land price index and fitted model; on the Arcgis9.3 platform, methods and instruments such as ESDA module, Kriging interpolation, digital land price model and so on were used to analyze the regular pattern of the space distribution of land price in Dazhou city. The main conclusions were as follows:1. Classified land price indexes and comprehensive land price indexes in Dazhou City were formulated by means of the achievement of dynamic monitoring data of urban land price in Dazhou during 2008-2012, and the influencing factors causing land price variation were also analyzed by observing the change features of land prices in terms of time series during 2008-2012. The commercial land price average annual growth amounted to 79.2 Yuan/m2, rose to 20.92%, the average annual increase of 4.18%; the level of premium levels were rising year after year, level between the premium level had significant difference. Residential land price average annual growth amounted to 26.6 Yuan/m2, rose to 14.69%, the average annual increase of 2.94%; the level of land price level rising trend, fast growth and slow growth appeared alternately. Industrial land price average annual growth amounted to 2.1 Yuan/m2, rose to 6.9%, the average annual increase of 1.38%; each level of price trends and horizontal line, maintained a small amplitude slow upward trend.2. The ordinals of time variation of commercial, residential and industrial land prices in Dazhou City was calculated, the optimal model of time variation trends was fitted for the land prices of each usage, and the prediction values of commercial, residential and industrial land prices in Dazhou City during 2008-2015 were obtained. The result showed the price of land for various uses in Dazhou city is was on the rise in the next few years. By comparing the price of commercial land, residential land, and industrial land, the level of land price was shown as commercial land>residential land>industrial land, with both increment rate and amplification shown as commercial land>residential land>industrial land.3. Spatial exploratory analysis on the land prices of dynamically monitored sampling sites in Dazhou in 2012 was carried out by such tools as Histogram, Normal QQ lot, Trend Analysis and Semivariogram/Covariance cloud, etc. on Arcgis9.3 software platform, and the study found that the commercial, residential and industrial land prices at the sampling sites were all in compliance with normal distribution trends.4.A spherical model for Kriging interpolation was selected to generate the digital model of commercial, residential and industrial land prices, and the contour line of land prices was extracted. The spatial distribution laws of land prices in Dazhou City were revealed by analyzing the contour map of land prices.The spatial distribution of commercial land price:(1) the space distribution of land price was a circle structure, land price isoline representation of spatial centrality;(2) the spatial distribution of land prices was featured by variability, land price by commercial center outwards gradually reduced, while the change in some areas;(3) the land price regional distribution in space;(4) land price with differences in gradient change in the space.The spatial distribution of residential land price:(1)the spatial distribution of land prices was an approximate ring structure;(2)residential land distribution street, adjacent to the business center, (3) the land prices were unevenly distributed with regionality in space;(4) the land price decreased progressively from downtown area to outskirts, with differences in gradient change.The spatial distribution of industrial land price:Industrial land priced the highest in more than 700 Yuan/m2, the lowest in 450 Yuan the following/m2; the old city, South District and West District Chaoyang Road, regional industrial land priced generally higher. |
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