Research And Innovation And Technological Factors Affecting The Automobile Industry Lagged Effects

Since 2002, China has proposed a power strategy for the automobile. The strategy also explicitly points out that the key to truly realize the auto industry powerful nation goal is to rely on technological innovation. Although the importance of technological innovation has become the consensus of the industry, but the technical innovation of automobile industry of our country still has many problems, and is still a lack of enough lagging research and evidence in making technology innovation policy. In order to promote the development of technology innovation in automobile industry, the research on the influencing factors of technology innovation in automobile industry and the lagging effect of inquiry expects to provide some basis for the formulation of relevant decision-making about automobile industry technology innovation. This study collected and reviewed the relevant literature on foreign and domestic. According to internal and external factors this study established the evaluation index system and found out the main influencing factors of technology innovation in automobile industry by regression analysis method. More importantly the study made the lag analysis for these factors and determined the factors existing hysteresis effect. Finally the study confirmed the optimal lag period and determined the influence degree of each factor and the lagged variables. The empirical results show that:(1) factors have significant influence on technology innovation in automobile industry are:investment in research and development, technical personnel, technical transformation rate, industry competition degree, degree of openness (FDI), and the R&D investment, technical personnel, technical transformation rate belong to the internal factors, while the industry competition degree, degree of opening to the outside world (FDI) belong to the external influence factors. (2) The technical conversion rate and the degree of competition industry do not have lag effect. the investment in research and development, technical personnel, FDI have lag effect and the optimal lag period is 2 years, that is, two years later the influence on technology innovation of auto industry will reach the most significant level. (3) FDI in the current performance is negatively correlated with technology innovation, but in the long term and for the performance of technology innovation is positively associated with relationship. Considering the lagging effect, the direction of FDI changes from the current to the long-term. (4) From the current, the degree of influence of various factors descending order are:the degree of industrial concentration, technical staff, R & D investment, technology conversion, FDI (negative).But in the long run, only investment in research and development, technical personnel, FDI have the lag effect, for these factors exist hysteresis effect according to the degree of influence from big to small order are:investment in research and development, technical personnel, FDI. Because of time lag, the order to the effect of R & D investment and technical personnel has changed from the current level to the long-term.