Simulation Study On The Sustainable Evolution Of Shijiazhuang Industrial Ecosystem

Shijiazhuang is an important producer city in North China, also, it is the crucial equipment manufacturing base and the chemical industry circulation base, green agricultural base in Capital Economic Circle. During the "Twelve Five" period, its economy continues to grow at an rapid average rate of 9.98% per year, while rapid economic development is accompanied by a series of ecological and environmental problems which need to be solved as soon as possible. From the perspective of itself development, how to coordinate the economic growth and good environmental governance in the new period is a crucial issue. At the national level, the "Coordinated Development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province" has been the national strategic plan in the "Thirteen Five-Year Plan", Shijiazhuang as the capital city of Hebei Province is responsible for undertaking non-core capital functions, promoting the transfer of industrial upgrading, expanding the capacity of the environment, which are the extremely important historical mission. Forced by the dual responsibility of internal changes and external coordination, how to balance economic and ecological benefits in development is an important issue.This paper used the context of ecosystem theory, ecological footprint theory and system dynamics to analyze the ecological, social and industrial subsystem development, the results show that the city’s industrial ecosystem exist irrational industrial structure and serious ecological deficit issues; then based on three important characteristics of industrial ecosystem’s evolution: industrial diversity, ecological integrity and some related economic theories this paper constructed Shijiazhuang industrial ecosystem evolution model to simulate the basic behaviors.Through setting the parameters including proportion of the labor force, the second industry labor index and investment index, the tertiary industry index and investment index of labor, environmental protection investment ratio and technology investment ratio, this paper develops four kinds of programs which are “real evolution model”, “economical priority model”, “ecological priority model” and “sustainable model”, then using industrial diversity, ecological pressure coefficients to determine and evaluate the feasibility of the various models. After comprehensive comparison, it shows that the “sustainable model” can ensure a sustainable economic growth at around 7.89% pace, at the same time it could ensure maximize the diversity of industrial, and minimize ecological pressure coefficient, which is the ideal model of Shijiazhuang industrial ecosystem’s evolution to the advanced stage. Finally, based on simulation results this paper provides policy recommendations, which are increasing scientific and technological input and carry out the ecological transformation of regional industrial system.