Study On Risk Allocation Model Of PPP Project

In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s economy, the demand for infrastructure, the construction of public utilities are becoming more and more, because of limited financial resources of local government, unable to bear all expenses incurred in the construction of infrastructure and public utilities. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a large number of infrastructure and public utilities of PPP projects. The development of the PPP project can not only significantly improve the local government’s financial revenue and expenditure, but also for the private sector to bring more investment opportunities. After joining the private sector can also bring advanced technology and efficient management, so as to substantially improve the quality and efficiency of infrastructure, public utilities. But PPP projects usually have large investment, large, long construction period and other issues involved in and the superposition of various negative factors led to the PPP projects in the specific implementation process there are many risks, so the PPP project risk sharing reasonable and not in a large extent determines the success or failure of the final project.In this paper, we build a risk sharing model of PPP project from the perspective of government departments to study the risk sharing of the concession agreement negotiation stage. In this model, the government department first through the access to the PPP project library on the risk of the past PPP project is summarized and combined with expert experience(Delphy Fa), to identify the risk of the project. Followed by risk analysis, and risk can be divided into two categories, the first class for some parties alone to bear the risk, the second for multi sharing risk.At the sole risk sharing, first to construct the index system of risk sharing and by the PPP project experts and participants on behalf of scoring, and then use the gray relational analysis identified every participants and ideal risk-taking side association degree, and ultimately by the maximum degree of party bear the corresponding risk. The grey relational analysis method belongs to the category of geometric processing method, and its essence is to reflect the geometric comparison of the data sequence which reflects the changing characteristic of each factor. Used to measure the degree of correlation between factors, is through the comparison of the correlation between the factors and the curve of the. Model constructed in this paper, at the sole risk shared first, invite the experts of PPP project for the participants of each index score, by absorbing structure among the participating advantage the risk of ideal commitment, and then calculate the degree of association among the participants and ideal risk-taking side, participants and ideal risk-taking side Association says that the similarity of the two. The size of the relationship between the participating parties and the ideal commitment party represents the tendency of the PPP project experts to consider the risk sharing under the full consideration of the various indicators. So it is the best risk taking party that is the best risk taking party.The risks of sharing on the basis of Shapley theory to construct the risk sharing model. Shapley value theory are generally used in cooperative relationship based on established alliance of income distribution, cost allocation, loss sharing, Shapley value theory according to the Alliance for the participating party for contributions to the alliance of benefit distribution. Construction risks allocation model before, the calculation of the initial Shapley value without considering the risk to assume symmetry degree of the revenue and risk taking, risk bears willingness to take risk bearing bears the risk of whether to limit and risk bear the risk control, so it is necessary to introduce the risk sharing factors of initial allocation proportion was modified, get the final proportion. Finally with the help of a sewage treatment project PPP S project to build a risk sharing model of the PPP project was verified.the applicable in China PPP project risk sharing model, enrich the theory of PPP project risk sharing, have a positive impact on the practice of PPP projects in China.