The Research Of Sustainable Development Based On The Ecological Footprint Model In Lu’an City

With the growing economic and social development and the process of urbanization, human economic activities on the ecological environment extremely trampling, resulting in the wanton expansion of ecological footprint. In view of the increasingly serious water pollution and atmospheric haze and other environmental problems, we should combine the ecological environment and social economy, to seek a better path of combination of human and nature. Therefore, the sustainable development is not only a certain stage of historical development, but also an essential part. The correct analysis and understanding of Lu’an city sustainable development present situation, has the function of guidance for the development of Lu’an city, also has an important role for the investigation of ecological civilization construction and ecological compensation mechanism in the Dabie Mountain Area.Based on the analysis of the ecological environment and economic development in Lu’an City of Anhui Province, using the dynamic ecological footprint model to calculate the current situation of the development of Lu’an City, study Lu’an City, Anhui Province 2004～2014 eleven years in the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity; analysis and evaluation of ecological security of the city, and a prediction of Lu’an City in the next ten years on the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the development trend. The results showed that 2004～2014 in Lu’an City ecological footprint per capita and per capita ecological carrying capacity was fluctuating upward trend, and all of which are in the state of ecological surpus. During this time, the ecological capacity index of power supply and demand balance between the 0.68-0.79 in more secure(Level 2). In combination with the existing data base, using the MATLAB software platform, the use of gray GM (1, 1) model and artificial neural network model of Lu’an City ecological footprint per capita and per capita ecological bearing capacity prediction, ecological surplus and present a steady upward trend. Grey model in Lu’an City ecological footprint per capita increased to 0.8397hm2. Per capita ecological bearing capacity increased to 1.1776hm2; using artificial neural network model of Lu’an City ecological footprint per capita and per capita ecological carrying capacity prediction, Lu’an City ecological footprint per capita in 0.7732-0.7925hm2. Per capita ecological bearing capacity in 1.1188～1.1461 hm2 in the and in ecological surplus is got. The state of sustainable development.Finally, from the perspective of sustainable development, puts forward reasonable and feasible to reduce the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity improvement suggestions, provide scientific basis and decision support for the development of Lu’an city. In the protection of Wanxi Dabie mountain ecological environment at the same time should actively explore the sustainable development model of green economy, and planning and prospects for future research.