The Basic VaR Method Of Railway Supply Chain Financial Risk Management

With the development of economic globalization in China, the study in the field of Supply Chain has also became more profound. As a new financing service model, supply chain finance has been proposed and received a wide range of attention. Specifically, compared to the shrinking traditional lending business in bank recent years, the non-bank financial market has been emerged and accelerated by the promotion of "Internet Plus" mode. More and more enterprises, even foreign-funded enterprises have also involved for business development in the non-bank financial market. But it is worth mentioning that, the united domestic supply chain finance and logistics management services market is very small at present, and it has a great potential.At the same time, the railway transportation as the traditional logistics and transport enterprises has been impacted a lot in the process of the transformation of China’s economic structure, the railway freight volume, market share decreased year by year, the huge financial pressure forced the railway transportation speed up the reform process. From the point of present situation, the China Railway Corporation proposed a plan of further exploration of the logistics market, close joint corporation of railway bureau and large and medium-sized enterprises. In order to further promote the freight marketing regional linkage, study and formulate logistics "package" solution, make transport agreements with enterprises or logistics turnkey contract, try to make the railway transportation integrate into enterprise logistics chain. As an opportunity for railway transportation, it should try to expand the supply chain financial services. The railway transportation should base on the supply chain management, combined with the financial and credit services to narrow the distance between customers and enhance the stability of supply of goods.But the concern is that due to the existence of financial leverage, the supply chain finance business has a height of risk profile, especially in recent years, the trade financing crisis emerge in an endless stream, and it caused a huge economic losses both banking and financial institutions and related supervision logistics enterprises. In this situation, this study based on the current railway transport production reality, in purpose of develop supply chain finance, establish models for railroad to carry out the main risks quantified estimation faced in the process of supply chain finance business and design the corresponding risk control methods.Specifically, this paper first analyses from the view of logistics management capability, supply chain service capabilities, information service level, risk management and supply chain fusion of the third party logistics enterprises" basic elements to carry out supply chain finance business, and then use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for quantitative description.On this basis, according to the current production practice of railway transportation and the capacity of the elements with the situation, proposed three stages of early, middle, and mature stage to carry out the development framework of supply chain finance and design corresponding development patterns. At the same time, due to the supply chain finance’s characteristic of self-liquidating, compared with the traditional credit business, more attention should be paid to the risk of the supply chain system, especially in the upstream and downstream trade risk and market risk. In this process, the actual operation of the quantitative estimates of market risk is difficult, because it involves aspects, and at the same time, more difficult to grasp.According to the fluctuation of market risk, use financial time series analysis method, eastablish AR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model to describe characterize matter of yield kurtosis and heteroskedasticity, and on this basis, improve the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate long-term market risk van And in the case of the comprehensive test rate of capital without risk value and capital cost, design a risk management index of dynamic pledge rate. Compared with other methods, the model proposed in this paper is more reasonable in the process of long-term risk measurement.