Statistics Measure Of Forestry Comprehensive Economic Strength And Spatial Panel Econometric Analysis On Forestry Economic Growth Of China

We should do some scientifically and sound statistical measurement and evaluation on the forestry comprehensive economic strength of all regions, and research and analyze the factors of forestry economic growth, which has a great significance to have a correct understanding of the level and the characteristics of forestry economic development and the improved direction in its economic competition.Firstly, this study constructs the evaluation index system for forestry comprehensive economic strength. The index system has four dimensions and 21 indicators which consists of forestry base capacity, forestry market potential, the potential of forestry science and technology and the contribution of forestry ecological. The article uses the Projection Pursuit Classification Model and the improved entropy evaluation method based on the panel data to measure China’s provincial forestry comprehensive economic strength. The results show that, (1)Based on the projection pursuit evaluation, the top ten of national forestry economic comprehensive strength in 2000-2013 are respectively Guangxi, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Sichuan and Hunan. In terms of regional distribution, China’s forestry economic competitiveness overall shows a pattern of "the compatibility of the peak and the bottom in east, concentration in the middle, relatively weak in the west". (2)Meanwhile, it finds that the evaluation results of the two methods are consistent statistically by Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient Test. Further taking Fujian province as an example, the study uses these two methods to do some research on statistical measure analysis and influence rate analysis around the city of Fujian forestry economy comprehensive strength. The ranking results based on the projection pursuit evaluation of nine cities in Fujian in descending order are Nanping, Sanming, Longyan, Ningde, Putian, Fuzhou, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou and Xiamen. And the results of the impact rate analysis show that Nanping, Sanming and Longyan is an important driving force to forestry comprehensive economic strength of Fujian Province.Secondly, this study analyzes the spatial relationship of Chinese forestry economic development and its influence factors by using Moron’s I index and the spatial panel econometric models, based on the panel data about forestry economic development from 2000 to 2013 among 31 provinces of China. The results show that the Morari s I index values are almost around 0.3 which indicates that there are some spatial autocorrelation of forestry economic development in all regions of China. Therefore the study selects per-capita forestry output value as the explained variable, and selects indicators in 5 aspects including the quality of forestry economy, demographic capital, market potential, the potential of science and technology, and ecological contribution as explanatory variables to establish the model. The spatial weight matrix combines the geospatial weight with economic spatial weight, and eventually this paper establishes a spatial lag panel data econometric model based on fixed effects. The results show that the spatial autoregressive coefficients of the model is 0.169 which through the test in 1% significance level, and it reveals that the space effect of the model is significant. And each coefficient of explanatory variables is highly significant in statistics. Forestry economy quality has a positive role in promoting forestry economic development, and the parameter estimates of forestry output value of the proportion of GDP, the labor productivity in forestry and the average wage of forestry workers are 0.2037、0.2078 �'� 0.2455. Demographic capital also has a positive role in promoting forestry economic development with a parameter estimate 0.2129 of the number of forestry employees. The parameter estimate of forestry industry market share is 0.59, which indicates that the higher the degree of forestry market, the higher the level of forestry economic development. The parameter estimate 0.195 of the forestry R&D expenditure shows that investment levels of forestry science and technology plays a major role in promoting forestry economic development. The basic elements of the forestry has a positive role in upgrading economic development, and the parameter estimates of the total stumpage amount, forest cover rate and forest area are 0.0289,0.0783 and 0.0585.Finally, the study puts forward some targeted recommendations and policies based on the above findings.