Spatial Econometric Analysis On The Impact Of Climate Change On Economic Growth Of Agricultural In China

In recent years, the global climate change and its impact on social economy, which is characterized by global warming, have been increasingly concerned by all circles of society. The agricultural production, which is depending on the climatic conditions, is more sensitive to the impact of climate change. China is a large agricultural country with a large population. The stable development of agricultural production, especially grain production, is directly related to the social stability and sustainable development. Therefore, it is significant to study on the impact of climate change on agricultural economic development in China.There have been many studies on the effects of climate change on micro crop physiology and macro grain yield. But most of them are study on the crop model, few literatures focus on the development of agricultural economy from the spatial effect and spatial econometric perspective. Therefore, in this paper, through the analysis of temporal and spatial variation of climate change, the space effect of agricultural economic growth, climate factor to account for spatial econometric model, to explore the impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural economic growth of seasonal and regional differences. According to the analysis results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the development of agricultural economy in different regions.The main conclusions:(1) during 1979 to 2010, the annual and seasonal average temperature of China showed a significant warming trend. The variation of precipitation has no significant trend. Both they showed significant regional and seasonal differences in space; (2) the exploratory data analysis show that the agricultural economy of our country growth has obvious spatial agglomeration effect. High-high value agglomeration mainly exists in the eastern part of China, and the low-low value agglomeration mainly exists in the northwest of China. (3) The results show that:for the whole country, climate change is mainly a rise in temperature has significant adverse effects on agricultural production and precipitation had no significant effect; the temperature rise is conducive to East China, central China agricultural economic development, and the southwest, northwest, North and northeast agricultural production has an inhibitory effect; Southwest precipitation decrease and the Northeast precipitation is not conducive to the increase of the total output value of agriculture; while the increase in precipitation in Northwest China can alleviate the temperature rise of agriculture has adverse effects.Finally, based on the empirical analysis, in view of the role of climate change in the agricultural economic growth proposed some policy suggestions:to break the boundaries of administrative divisions, and adjacent areas of collaborative development; improving crop varieties, enhance the ability to adapt to climate change crops; agricultural production infrastructure, improve agricultural ability to resist natural disasters.