| Since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening up, the economy of our country develops very quickly, and the communication with foreign countries is also getting deeper and deeper. The good policy and the steady of our society and countries close to China provide a good opportunity for the development of tourism. In addition to that, China also owns rich tourism resources and tourism products. China’s tourism industry successfully seizes the good development opportunities of China’s reform and opening up, attracting a large number of tourists from abroad. Under the favorable conditions, the export of our country’s tourism service trade has made great achievements, and China has become one of the most famous tourism countries in the world. But with the increasing of travelers’ desire for the tourism products, our country’s tourism products are failing to satisfy the demand of customers because of the disadvantage of oneness, repeatability. And all of these shortcomings make the further development of export of trade in China’s tourism service meets a lot of bottlenecks and developmental disorders. And the competitiveness in the international tourism market is declining either. Besides of that, on the one hand, comparing with the developing speed of the export of tourism service, the import of China’s tourism service has a much higher speed, and it makes the deficit between the import and export of tourism service get more and more serious, and the serious current situation has attracted the close attention of our government. On the other hand, in recent years, the development of export of trade in tourism service shows a trend of "L", and this trend does not change, and it will keep on if effective measures are not taken. So in the context likes this, it’s very important to solve the problems we meet in the process of developing the export of tourism service and improve the developed speed of the export of tourism service. In order to expand the international status and international reputation of China in the international tourism market, in the same time, to recover the development of trade in service, we should take the opportunity, and fight the challenges, to make China into an important and well-known tourist destination in the world. To realize this, we should analysis the current situation of China’s tourism industry and export of tourism service trade carefully, and find the influencing factors to get them improved, then making them play a better role.On the basis of large number of literatures from home and abroad, in this paper, I firstly analysis the situation and opportunities of export of tourism service, which help me know the achievements and existed problems. Secondly I put forward the influencing factors, after the qualitative analysis, I set some assumptions on the relation between the export of tourism service and every influencing factor. Thirdly I use time series data and panel data to make an empirical analysis. In this thesis, given the availability of data, I apply three models to analysis these influencing factors, respectively, the Multiple Linear Regression Model, VAR Model and FE Model, through which I find the direction and extent of these variables on the export of trade in tourism service t. Finally, on the basic of the research conclusion above, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, hoping to play some roles in solving problems.The conclusions of this paper are as following:Considering the effect of economic environment, the speed and level of our country’s economy development, exchange rate changes and China’s export of trade in goods all have a positive effect on the export of trade in tourism service. More details include three aspects:According to the estimation result of the VAR model, and the co-integration equation, the export of trade in tourism service will increase by 0.15 percent when our economy increases by one percent, and with the RMB depreciating,100 US dollars will value more RMB, so when the exchange rate increases by one percent, the result is the increase of export of trade in tourism service by 0.02percent. And the export of goods plays a more obvious role among the three influencing factors, the specific result is that the export of trade in tourism service will increase by 0.85 percent when the export of trade in goods increase by one percent.Considering the effect of physical environment, the physical environment includes environmental pollution and the convenience of transportation. Firstly, environment pollution has a negative effect on China’s export of trade in tourism service, and among the many indexes of pollution, the influence of air pollution more significant, which means that foreign travelers are more sensitive to the degree of air pollution in our country, and they reflect much stronger to the pollution of air. The following is water pollution, and the solid waste pollution can lead to the pollution of water, so the pollution index is dropped. While the aircraft in international airlines mileage can promote the development of China’s export of trade in tourism service, as the main vehicle, the international airlines miles increases will provide more convince foreign travelers, which can attract more foreigners to travel to our country.Considering the difference of culture, the bigger difference of culture, more visitors will come to China, and the number of visitors will increase by 3.68 percent from the eastern culture to western culture. Besides, when China applies the Visa-free policy, there will be 4.39 percent more visitors come for tourism.In the end of this paper, on the base of result of qualitative analysis and empirical study, and combining with the actual situation, I put forward some targeted suggestions from the aspects of our macro economy, the support of government, the tourism itself and the development of tourism resource and products and so on, hoping the current situation can be improved and the problems can be solve to a certain extent. |
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