Determinants Of China Inbound Tourism Based On Double-log Linear Regression Model

Inbound tourism is one of the import components of tourism. It makes contributions in foreign exchange reservation, economy development, and image publicizing. According to the requirements of China tourism, this paper adopts the tourism economics and econometrics theory to research the development history and characters of consumption, and to build a quantitative tourism demand model. Also, this paper gives out the corresponding policy proposals.The main contents and results of this paper are:(1) This paper studies the tourism history, summarizes the characters of different stages. This paper found that China tourism is in a full developing period, it can be divided into different stages, it is very vulnerable, and can be influenced by unexpected and big events. Almost all the tourists are from major guest countries, and the number of guests is expanding.(2) This paper studies the characters of consumption and disequilibrium over provinces. This paper finds that the tourism itself has strong correlation with other behaviors. Sightseeing, business affairs, visiting families are major activities. The inbound tourism is not in equilibrium status over provinces, this paper uses GINI coefficient to measure the disequilibrium. This will provide some indication of policy making.(3) Based on the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up a tourism demand model. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences; the demand of tourism is influenced by the macroeconomic index, unexpected and big events. As far as China inbound tourism is concerned, the determinants are per capital income, exchange rate, consumer price index, Asia financial crises, and SARS. The double-log linear regression and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity, and can explain the how much the influence will be. In another word, this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.(4) The paper studies the demand sensitivities over determinants for America, Japan, Korea, Russia, Australia, Malaysia, and Great British. Among all the influencing factors, the per capital income is the most sensitive one. As far as Japan, USA and Great British concerned, consumer price index is negatively related with tourism demand, there exists an income infect. The exchange rate effect varies over different guest countries. Big and unexpected events have general and regional effects on China tourism demand.(5) This paper studies the tourism demand expanding policy. According to the microeconomy, tourism industry policy, unexpected events, and the strategy of tourist consumption, this paper gives out some tourism demand expending proposals.The contributions of this paper are:First, this paper uses the GINI coefficient to study the disequilibrium over provinces;Second, using the double-log linear regression and panel data method, this paper build up one experience research model for tourism demand. Under the assumption of tourists from certain guest country have certain preferences, the demand of tourism is influenced by macroeconomic index and unexpected big events.Third, the double-log linear model and panel data method can reflect the inner mechanism among influencing factors. This paper measures the influences of Exchange Rate, CPI, Per Capital Income, SARS, Olympic Games, and Asia Crises quantitatively. The meaning of coefficients is elasticity; this will give out the demand sensitivities over determinants.