Research Of The Cultivated Land Quality Change Model Based On Partial Least Squares Regression

Cultivated land is the base of human’s daily life. Growing population and on-going urbanization brought about the shortage of cultivated land resource. As a result, the current situation and sustainable usage of cultivated land has received much concerns. Thus, setting up a feasible and real-time assessment system for cultivated land quality is in an urgent so that we can grasp the law of its evolution, analyze the driving mechanism and provide scientific basis for making of protection policy.This thesis modeled the cultivated land quality evolution by means of Partial Least Squares Regression based on the cultivated land fertility, value, security and social economic development theory. A universal method of modeling social economic development and cultivated land quality evolution has come into being in this thesis respectively, mainly from three perspectives, that is, the acquisition of the current situation of cultivated land, the analysis of cultivated land variation and the driving mechanism of cultivated land evolution. Also, this thesis demonstrated the process of modeling and its reasonability in taking Hong’an county of Hubei Province as an example. Three main parts of this thesis are shown as follow:Firstly, the thesis introduced the theory of cultivated land fertility, value, security and social economic development on cultivated land quality and evolution mechanism. In addition, the method of setting up an index system called Analytic Hierarchy Process and the method of correlation analysis modeling called Partial Least Squares Regression were involved.The second part refer to modeling cultivated land quality evolution, including assessment of cultivated land current situation, analysis of cultivated land quality evolution and quantitative modeling the driving mechanism of cultivated land quality. This thesis brought Analytic Hierarchy Process and Partial Least Squares Regression into the selection of index and the establishment of model. Thereby, an integrated solution can be offered which aims to obtain the whole process knowledge covering cultivated land current situation, cultivated land quality evolution and its social economic factor driving mechanism. Also a universal model for the analysis of township level cultivated land quality evolution was provided.The third part is a case study of the cultivated land quality evolution model. In this part, the current situation of cultivated land in Hong’an county was assessed. And based on the cultivated land quality data in 2003, the cultivated land quality variation data of Hong’an county was generated. The correlation analysis between the variation data and social economic development statistical data was carried out. Then the cultivated land quality evolution model which was driven by social economic development has been built and the scientific reasonability was proved..