Study On Analysis Method Of Wide-Body Aircraft Market Demand In Long-Haul Routes

Along with the increased of residents’ income, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the increasingly prominent bottleneck of domestic airspace resources, china air transportation industry will be focus on the international aviation market after nearly twenty years rapid development, which is also an necessary requirement for china to promote the rational development of air transportation structure and stride forward from large aviation country to power one. So, it has become a particularly important issue for civil aircraft manufactures, airlines and civil aviation administration government departments to analyze the specific long-haul routes region wide-body aircraft market demand structure and scale in a scientific and reasonable ways. This article from the perspective of civil aircraft manufacturers, and forecast the wide-body aircraft market demand structure and scale in the specific long-haul routes region, and eventually aiming to developed a system analysis method of wide-body aircraft market demand in specific long-haul routes region, the following three aspects were focused:(1) The air passenger demand forecast method in long-haul routes. Grey prediction model is used to forecast air passenger traffic in opened long-haul routes, and the new long-haul route air passenger demand forecast method is mainly studied. First, analyzed the factors that affect the market demand for long-haul routes, and drawing on the gravity model to constructed an air passenger demand forecast model for potential long-haul routes. On this basis, regression analysis has been conducted on by using the Sino-American airline routes history traffic data as samples. Finally, Verifying the feasibility of this model by using a new long-haul route of Chengdu-San Francisco, and the results show that the model is practical and feasible.(2) Wide-body aircraft trip direct operation cost evaluation model. Based on the trans-log production function, using the stage length, seat capacity and fuel prices as the input factors, constructed an wide-body aircraft trip direct operation cost function model. Then, using the airlines wide-body aircraft actual operation cost data as samples to make regression analysis, and the accuracy testing result show that the model is reasonable and feasible. In addition, the constructed cost model is used to analysis the relationship between the distance, seat capacity and trip direct operation cost, and it’s also adopt for analyzed the influence of fuel prices on the seat capacity economical efficiency.(3) Analysis methods of wide-body aircrafts market demand in long-haul routes. In order to reflect the high flight frequency interests in the market competition environment impact of the civil aircraft market demand, the passenger average schedule delay cost has be introduced. On this basis, reference the micro fleet planning approach based on optimized fleet capacity allocation in airline networks, minimizing the regional fleet direct operation cost and the passenger average schedule delay cost as the objective, a wide-body aircraft market demand analysis model in long-haul routes has been constructed, and the simulation analysis are carried on the last. The simulation results show that this method can be better used for analyzed the wide-body aircraft market demand in specific long-haul routes region.