Study On The Price Guidance Function Of Chinese Wheat Futures Market To The Spot Market

As is known to all, both at home and abroad, modern futures market at the earliest, in agricultural futures markets. Wheat, as a kind of important agricultural products, is one of the earliest futures varieties. China as one of the main wheat producer, consumer and importer of wheat,futures market and cash market in our country is developing rapidly, and many scholars believe that wheat futures and spot prices leading relationship reflects efficiency is an important means of wheat futures market. Therefore, studies’ our country wheat futures and spot prices leading relationship can be either for Chinese wheat futures market price discovery function of swing degree providing a more objective judgment, can also be set to the development of China’s wheat futures market and policy providing a strong theoretical support. And promoteing the continuous improvement of the wheat futures market in China, at the same time to improving the overall industrial level of China’s wheat spot market also has very important significance.This article through the analysis of domestic wheat futures market, spot market present situation and the period, the spot price guide function of theoretical basis, as well as wheat, cotton, and the U.S. wheat varieties on its spot price guidance function is the empirical analysis, find out the insufficiency and flaw of wheat futures market price guide function. And then put forward the perfect our country wheat futures market, spot market running mechanism countermeasures and Suggestions. To speed up the marketization of China’s wheat futures market, spot market and internationalization progress. Further, for the wheat and provide theoretical reference agricultural marketization and industrialization. At the same time, contribute to the futures market regulators to our country futures market, accurate positioning, identify the effectiveness of China’s futures market function, take effective measures in time, to stabilize the market, make our country agricultural product futures market, spot market in a healthy, stable, orderly and effective price orderly running orbit, is conducive to the overall development of the agricultural industry.Empirical study results show that for Chinese wheat futures, the spot and futures prices there is no obvious co-integration relationship, so the futures price of spot price guide does not exist in the relationship; However, us wheat futures price and spot price, there is an obvious co-integration relationship between the futures price of spot price also has obvious guide; For China’s cotton futures prices and spot prices exist obvious co-integration relationship between the futures price has significant guiding to the spot price. Through comparative analysis, we found that the lack of China’s wheat market price guide function, this paper gives the reasons and countermeasures and Suggestions.