The Study Of Price Transmition Of Wheat Between World Market And Chinese Market

As the basis industry China,agricultural industry provides basic protection for people's life Chinese,so to ensure food security is a prerequisite for Chinese economic development and people's happy life.Since 2001,China take part in the WTO,the China domestic market and international market is more and more closely,for agricultural commodities,due to its special properties and important position,China's agricultural commodities international trade also becomes more and more frequent.Although trade market is more and more open,agricultural products market risk arises,especially during times of economic crisis,the sharp fluctuations in the world prices of agricultural products and international market price fluctuations will transfer to the domestic market,causing great impact on the domestic agricultural products market in China,affecting the overall price level in China,affecting the inflation rate,have adverse effect on China's economy.Since twenty-first Century,the price of grain in China is on the rising trend.This paper will take the wheat as an example to study the trade situation,the price situation and the characteristics and the degree of the transmission of the international and domestic wheat prices.From February 2002 to September 2014,China's wheat prices rose 1 times as a whole.In recent years,the rise of China's wheat production in recent years,but the Chinese government in order to enhance the price of wheat in China,domestic wheat poured into the inventory,from the beginning of 2009,China has become the wheat net importer,to 2012,China's wheat exports has been close to zero,wheat imports into geometric series rise,the import volume rose,domestic wheat prices still remain high in the strange phenomenon is the recent wheat market in China "new normal".This paper takes wheat as an example,studies the conduction mechanism of price fluctuation of agricultural commodities,the main research by the literature summary,elaborated the agricultural fluctuations and price transmission theory,combined with the wheat market in China in the new normal,clarify the important influence in different periods of the international wheat market of domestic grain food market,clarifying the international and domestic wheat prices conduction degree and price conduction velocity and in formulation different policies,good risk management,to ensure national food security.In the empirical research,the spatial price conduction and vertical price transmission phase superposition,respectively,using the vector error correction model and the threshold vector error correction model,considering the nonlinear properties of international and domestic wheat market relations,using the threshold vector error correction model(we do analysis of the international and domestic wheat prices conduction characteristics,and to verify the nonlinear properties of price transmission.This paper draws the conclusion is when logpc-1.591ogpu below-2.46,international wheat and Chinese wheat prices exist cointegration relationship,domestic wheat prices and international wheat prices formed long-term cointegration system can from non balanced state of the adjustment to the equilibrium state,then the wheat and Chinese wheat prices in general mechanism,when the Chinese wheat prices deviate from the equilibrium value,at a speed of 0.0025 units pull to the equilibrium level.And when a shock to the price of wheat in China exceeds the threshold value,the logpc-1.591ogpu>-2.46,between two time series cointegration mechanism will disappear,and can't be two groups of sequences of values pull back to its long-term equilibrium level,the international wheat and Chinese Wheat in the "special regimes".The previous period of wheat prices have a significant impact on the current price of wheat,In most of the time Chinese market and the international market in the long-run equilibrium state and international wheat prices to domestic prices lag the short-term impact of the two.In the late 2009 and 2014 9,10,,November,the international and domestic markets are not closely linked,and the short-term impact of the international market on the domestic market is not significant.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper at the end of the summary and to stabilize agricultural commodity price fluctuation and improve the futures market proposed some suggestions,hope our country agricultural product market prices stable,healthy development,better safeguard agricultural safety.