Study On The Mechanism Of The Influence Of Energy Prices On Chinese Wheat Price

After entering the21st century, food energy and financial attributes gradually revealed.98.08%ofthe international food price volatility can be changed by the international energy and financialexplanation. The energy price volatility transmission to the domestic by the international food prices,price index and biomass energy, and lead to huge fluctuations in domestic prices has caused theattention of all parties. Influenced by the development of biomass fuel ethanol, China’s grain structurehas been adjusted (maize has become China’s largest food crops in2012). This means that the foodproduction areas in north China is bound to have the change of planting structure, which measure thewheat is affected by energy prices become a proposition.In this paper, by using GARCH model，and we measure the degree of wheat directly and indirectlyaffected by energy prices. Wheat prices and WTI crude oil prices and international coal prices have"right deviation, fat tails and volatility clustering" characteristics. And the sample sequence after thefirst order difference smoothly, to explain the long-term co-integration relationship between the price ofwheat and WTI crude oil prices and the international coal prices. By symmetry and compositionanalysis of single variable GARCH model: under the premise of that the price of wheat has long beensymmetry, there are short-term leverage effect, but the convergence speed is very fast; Further studieson wheat cross price elasticity of energy price discovery: wheat cross price elasticity of coal prices ispositive, but the wheat cross price elasticity of oil prices is negative, and the former is about6times ofthe latter.Found in the indirect analysis of wheat prices by the impact of energy: the prices of wheat, maize,soybean, WTI crude oil prices and the international coal price have the characteristics of the "rightdeviation, low peak" and the first-order differential cointegration. After multivariate GARCH-CCCmodel analysis showed that: under the influence of the energy prices, the price of wheat and soybeanand maize is fluctuations in the same direction, and the soybean price has a greater affection than themaize price. In the wheat cross price elasticity of energy prices, although the change in elasticcoefficient, but is consistent with the univariate GARCH model results. Wheat cross price elasticity ofcoal prices is positive, but the wheat cross price elasticity of oil prices is negative, and the former isabout6times of the latter. In view of this, the author puts forward the farmers and wheat processingindustry development suggestions: pay attention to the price of coal and oil prices and find the pricefluctuation of wheat direction by soybean and maize price fluctuations, which can reduce cost andincrease profit; For the country concerned, should be based on the minimum purchase price of wheat,add freight subsidies and energy subsidies.