Convergence Of Economic Growth In The Yangtze River Delta

Regional differences and changes in economic growth are one of the hot issues concerned by economic geographers today. Expanding of regional economic level differences means the poor to become poorer, the rich to get richer and the serious social polarization, which can not only hinder the rapid economic development, but also will not be conducive to social harmony and stability. Exploration of the regional economic differences and impact factors of convergence is a necessary prerequisite for healthy and coordinated regional development and economic integration.By virtue of a good economic foundation, excellent human capital and an excellent location, Yangtze River Delta has undergone the first rapid development in the country’s reform and opening up policy, to become one of the fastest growing economic zones in China’s economic development. As a world class city enjoying priority of construction and development in the "13th Five Year Plan", it shall achieve rapid regional development and regional synergetic development as well as integrative development. However, during the rapid economic development in the Yangtze River Delta, as the urban economic agglomeration is obvious, the gap between cities is narrowed, but the gap in economic growth is expanded. Under the background of regional economic differences, the study on economic growth differences and the convergence process as well as the associated drivers will have important practical significance for the regional coordinated development.Based on published studies, the convergence of economic development differences between 2000 and 2014 in the Yangtze River Delta has been studies in this paper from the perspective of spatial econometrics by use of panel data combining time dimension and space section properties, taking into account the spatial effect of economic activities and exogenous factors that influence economic activities. First, the status of regional economic differences will be subject to quantitative analysis in different administrative regional scales through classical statistical analysis; and then the space exploratory analysis means will be employed for descriptive analysis of spatial distribution pattern and evolution of economic development, for autocorrelation testing of global and local economic growth and for exploration of its spatial dependence; finally, the regional economic σ convergence, absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence will be subject to empirical analysis based on convergence theory and spatial econometric model. The main conclusions are:(1) Economic development differences in the Yangtze River Delta in different administrative scales show different trends. Absolute and relative gaps among Jiangsu, Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai will expand constantly over time. For 25 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the absolute gap in regional economic development has increased, but the relative gap is gradually narrowing, indicating that there is a tendency of regional economic convergence.(2) The development model centered around Shanghai, with Nanjing and Hangzhou as the "center-periphery" of sub-centers is presented in the regional economic development, and the economic center of gravity has shifted northward since 2000. The development of many cities is influenced by the distance from the economic center, for example, Suzhou, Wuxi under strong radiation effects of Shanghai economy, Changzhou, Yangzhou centered around Nanjing as well as Ningbo, Shaoxing and other cities with Hangzhou as the center have achieved the rapid economic development and geo-spatial aggregation; by contrast, the development of Huaian, Suqian, Lianyungang, Lishui, Quzhou, etc. is relatively slow due to far distance from the economic center. In addition, Xuzhou, Wenzhou and other cities have been less affected by the distance from the center economic, and they mainly rely on its own economic base for development of competitive industries; therefore, the economy has exhibited relatively high levels. In summary, the regional economy of Yangtze River Delta is featured with dependency and heterogeneity in spatial perspective.(3) Explore Spatial Data Analysis is applied to analyze the spatial correlation of regional economic in the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that there is an obvious economic agglomeration phenomena in the Yangtze River Delta.The value of global Moran’s I is positive and approved by significant testing, which increased gradually before 2008, decreases slowly after 2008. The number of prefecture-level cities which has similar economic conditions of the regional concentration in space is increasing.(4) The economic convergence phenomenon in Yangtze River Delta is significant. The spatial effect of economic activity and regional disturbance exists significantly in the Yangtze River Delta. The Spatial Durbin model is more adaptive to estimate the economic convergence phenomenon of Yangtze River Delta, which take a consideration of spatial effects of explanatory variables and economic growth. The growth of capital, labor, FDI, industrialization, international trade has a positive impact on economic development.