Research On The Influence Of China’s Demographic Change On The Export Commodity Structure

The long-standing phenomenon of Large population and low population quality in our country makes that labor-intensive products have been dominant in the export commodity structure of our country.Recently,due to the change of population structure,the situation of cheap labor costs but relative shortage of human capital in our country has changed, the labor-intensive products are still exported,at the same time,the capital and technology intensive products’ export increases, further to promote the optimization of export commodity structure, it also makes that our country’s export commodity structure appears "Leontief paradox".In recent years, the change of population structure and export commodity structure become the hot spot and focus of academic research in China, however, few scholars have combined the demographic change with the export commodity structure to study.This paper finds there is "Leontief paradox" in the export commodity structure by analyzing the development trend of population structure and export commodity structure in our country firstly, after explains "Leontief paradox" in the export commodity structure from the perspective of demographic change instructed by the dynamic comparative advantage theory,namely makes empirical analysis to the influence of population structure change in our country to the export commodity structure,then makes the corresponding empirical conclusions.The empirical results show that the population structure and the export commodity structure do exist relationship in our country, among them, the reduction of workforce makes for the optimization of export commodity structure, the increase of the average education attainment makes for the optimization of export commodity structure, and these factors make "Leontief paradox" in export commodity structure.Finally,based on carding the main conclusions in this paper,advances the policy recommendations of demographic change promoting the upgrade of export commodities structure in our country.This paper is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is the introduction part, firstly introduces the background and significance of topics, followed by literature review at home and abroad and evaluation, reviewing from three aspects of the demographic change, export commodity structure, demographic change’s influence on a country’s export commodity structure mainly to provide a good material and theoretical basis for later analysis and research, and then introduces the thesis research ideas and research methods, finally points out the innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter is the study of the development trend of population structure, the export commodity structure in our country, namely to describe and analyze the change and development of China’s population structure, the export commodity structure.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of demographic change’s influence on the export commodity structure in our country, mainly to introduce the dynamic comparative advantage theory, and then introduces the feasibility of this theory being applied to analyze China’s demographic change’s influence on export commodity structure,finally,we get transmission mechanism according to the theory.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of demographic change’s influence on the export commodity structure in our country,This paper make regression analysis by the data in 1995-2013 concerned with population structure and the export commodity structure in our country.The fifth chapter is conclusion and policy Suggestions.We put forward the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions on the basis of conclusion made by carding the previous content.