Online Travel Demand Forecasting Model And Empirical Research

In recent years, with the development of travel e-commerce and self-help travel, many consumers choose booking travel products and services online, which promotes tourism service supply chain model to change and forms the online tourism service supply chain model whose core are travel websites. However, while online travel industry booms, it also faces enormous challenges, such as serious product homogeneity and questioned quality of travel services and payment security, so the online travel demand factors and forecasting has become an important part of the travel booking behavior research. Many domestic and international studies have regarded users’ Internet level, users’ perceived risk, website design and promotion, and travel products channels as the important factors influencing underline travel booking users to online travel booking user. Online travel demand forecasting begins to focus on train tickets, hotels and other tourist products, but these studies are mostly partial or limiting in predicting a certain kind of online travel products. Besides, the studies are not from the perspective of the overall online tourism service supply chain for the development of online travel booking market situation into account.This article regarded it as a starting point, predicted the future trends of online travel demand from the perspective of online tourism service supply chain. Firstly, the article described related theory on the tourism service supply chain and travel demand forecasting, as well as concepts of travel e-commerce and online travel; secondly, it established the online tourism service supply chain model whose core are travel websites; then, it concluded internal and external factors of the online travel demand from the view of online tourism servicesupply chain, and selected practical impact of factors with the gray correlation analysis method and then used econometric methods to build predictive models; finally, the article operated empirical study according to the status of online travel development and the statistical data, and made recommendations on online travel development.Empirical results showed that, and the built online travel demand forecasting model had a good prediction accuracy and goodness of fit. Meanwhile, the article drew the following conclusions: the online travel service supply chain mode helps to improve supply efficiency;income and budget on travel booking, supply conditions of travel products and services,network usage of tourism consumers directly affect tourism demand; the impact of social media on online travel demand needs to be further explored; online travel demand will continue to grow in next few years.