Land Use Dynamic Simulation With Agent-based Model

Land use change is the most direct manifestation of human interaction with the natural and geographical environment. Land use dynamics simulation which based on farmers agenr model can reveal microscopic decision-making mechanism belong to macro land use change. It could improve the efficiency of land use and rational use of land resources. This paper based agent theory and complexity science theory, Guangxi ecological migration area JinQiao village as an example. Based Participatory household survey data and remote sensing data, carry out the factors affecting research about land use change and household land use decisions, construct of farmers agent model. Analyzesd microscopic decision-making mechanism and simulation of study area land use change in future.The main results as follows:(1)The ecological immigration policy have significantly impact on farmers’ land use change.With the development of ecological migration project,the land use has undergone tremendous changes in study area.The land use showed a trend of diversification in study area from the land use types.There are 12 kind of land use types in 1996, 17 kind of land use types in 2005, 21 kind of land use types in 2014.From three periods of land use types, land use blocks number is rising.(2)Farmers’ land use change affected by many factors in study areaThe main factors affect farmers’ land use in study area have age of household head, number of household family members, household family income, distance to road, distance to the settlements, distance to paddy field, elevation, slope and aspect,at the same time the land use affected by policy factors significantly. The age of household head and number of household family members is internal factors affect farmers’ land use. Household Family income is social-economic factors.Distance, elevation, slope and aspect is natural factors.(3)The construction and application of agent modelBased netlogo software, farmers agent model was constructed, and run the model results were verified.The simulation results indicate that the model is well. Whether consider the policy Factors as scenario analysis, simulate the next 10 years land use change in the immigration area. The results showed that the land use policy factors have significantly affected in study area.(4)Exerting the positive role of government, optimizing land use structure.The study area affected by the policy factors significantly, the government should sum up experience for this years, actively learn from related ecological immigration good ecological development and construction experience, formulate suitable development policy for this region. At the same time the government should follow the principle of farmers’ willingness, through land consolidation, concentrated land to form scale to form scale effect.