| Forestry is an important part of the national economy, a basic industry and also an important way to promote farmers’income. Hechi City is an important forestry base in the northwest of Guangxi, study its forestry industry can be better to provide a basis for forestry development strategy of Hechi City, increase farmers’ income, and integration the social, economic and ecological of forestry’ comprehensive development in Hechi City.The article analyzed the status quo and characteristics of Hechi City forestry industry development based on theories related. Then based on the analysis of three classes of forestry industry structure variations in Hechi City from 2007 to 2014, utilized the grey correlation theory to analyze the dynamic relationship between total value of production of all the periods of time from 2007 to 2014 with three classes industries and the relative of sub-industries internal the primary forestry industry. Predicted the values of all the industries in Hechi City from 2015 to 2020 with the GM (1,1) model. Based on the grey developmental decision theory, it analyzed the preferential development decisions of sub-industries in primary forestry industry. Applying the SWOT analytical method, analyzed the development of the Hechi City forestry industry in advantage, disadvantage, opportunity and threaten comprehensively. Result in:(1) From 2007 to 2014, the degree of association between total value and forestry industries, the primary industry was the biggest,0.9616; the secondary industry was lower,0.9213; and the tertiary industry was the smallest,0.7748.①From 2007 to 2014, the degree of association between the total output and sub-industries in the primary industry was that the logging operation and transportation industries of wood and bamboo was 0.9951, the plantation of main economic forest product was 0.9579, not forest estate in forest system and plant cultivation was 0.9928, the timber forest cultivation and plantation industry was 0.9579, the sub-service of forestry production was 0.8485, the floriculture was 0.7363. ② From 2007 to 2014, the degree of association between the total output and sub-industries in the secondary industry was that the wood-processing and the handwork of wood, bamboo, cane was 0.9996, not wooden forest product processing was 0.9980, the furniture of wood, bamboo, cane production was 0.9978, the product of forestry chemistry processing was 0.9971, the other industries were 0.6721.③ From 2010 to 2014, the degree of association between the total output and sub-industries in the tertiary industry was that the not forest industry in forest system was 0.9715, the service of forestry ecology was 0.9623, the service of forestry public management and other organizations was 0.9363, the service of forestry professional technology was 0.9239, the forestry tourism and leisure service was 0.7174.(2) Based on the analysis of grey prediction result, from 2015 to 2020, the total value of out-put of the three class industries of Hechi City would increase every year. By 2020, the production value of the primary industry would be ￥ 10,261,120,000; the production value of the secondary industry would be ￥7,741,080,000; the production value of the tertiary industry would be ￥2,938,680,000. The proportion of the three class industries structure from 51.96:36.93:11.11 to 49.00:36.97:14.03.(3) Based on the analysis of grey development decision result, ① the range of the industries by the contributions to the primary industry in the nest period was:the floriculture> the timber forest cultivation and plantation industry> not forest industry in forest system> the breeding and utilize of terrestrial wild animals industry> the economic forest product plantation and collection industry> the logging operation and transportation of wood and bamboo industry> the sub-service of forestry industry processing.② the range of the industries by the contributions to the secondary industry in the nest period was:the furniture of wood, bamboo, cane production> not forest industry in forest system> not wooden forest product processing> the other industries> the wood-processing and the handwork of wood, bamboo, cane processing> the product of forestry chemistry processing.③the range of the industries by the contributions to the tertiary industry in the nest period was:the forestry tourism and leisure service> not forest industry in forest system> the service of forestry ecology> the service of forestry professional technology> the service of forestry public management and other organizations.(4) Summary of forestry industries’ status quo in Hechi City:the primary industry developed steadily; the secondary industry began to take shape; the tertiary industry began to take rudiment; the economy under the forest emerged. |
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