Comprehensive Analysis And Research Of Grain Production In Anhui Province

The ancients said:the granary of the people is enough, have ample food and clothing, to consider the etiquette, attaches great importance to the honor and disgrace, food is enough for a country to settle. Food are indispensable to people since the necessaries of life, involves the people’s living and national planning policy. In "11th five-year plan" period, China’s economic construction has made remarkable achievements, especially in the area of food production continued rapid growth for five years. As a typical representative of the national agricultural province, Anhui province, is China’s important commodity grain production, grain output in the 60 years breakthrough five ten billion jins, provide to other provinces of about five million tons of food per year on average, for our country’s food security has provided the important safeguard.Taking Anhui province as an example, mainly studied two problems:the influence factor of food production in Anhui province empirical analysis and prediction of grain production in Anhui province. On the first question, according to the economics selected the seven factors affecting food production, first using the principal component regression, to analyze the quantitative relation between variables and resources reasonable collocation with the problems in the process of food production. Then by using the method of stepwise regression analysis, screening significant factors effects on food production; And then using the grey correlation analysis to the influence factors of grain production in the scientific quantitative analysis, combining the two methods, draw the conclusion:the primary factors affecting food production have the affected area, total power of agricultural machinery, the amount of agricultural fertilizer, and thus puts forward related suggestions to improve grain production. On the second question, by using the method of time series analysis, using three different time series model fitting for food production sequence, respectively, by comparing the relatively optimal selection model, in order for the next three years to predict the output of grain, draw the conclusion:Anhui province grain production in the short term will grow stably. Through the forecast of grain production in Anhui province,will help for the government departments to formulate relevant grain macroeconomic regulation and control policy, which is conducive to better allocation of resources, economic development.