Study On The Comprehensive Capacity Of Grain Production In Henan Province

Henan province is a big industrial province with a large population and itis an important grain producing area in china. Against the background of the changeenvironment of the agriculture, it is the real meaning that the paper analysed thedevelopment situation and the influencing factors of grain production and forcastedthe total production.On the basis of defining the relevant concepts of the grain production, the paperused a segemented analysis on the total grain prodution, yield per unit and thecultivation areas of Henan province and did an comparative advantage analysis onrice, wheat, corn and bean of the eighteen perfecture-level cities. with the use of therevelant knowledge of agricutural economics, econometrics, multivatiate statisticalanalysis and multivariate linear regression method, the paper analysed the influencingfactors of the agricutural development in Henan province, forcasted the total grainproduction and gave some suggestion about how to improve the comprensive capacityof grain production in Henan province.The conclusions of the research were as follows:(1) On the basis of analysis onthe comprehensive capacity of grain prodution of Henan province, the paper pointedout characteristics of grain production and the main grain crop layout. The researchmade an comparative advantage analysis of rice, wheat, corn and bean of the eighteenperfecture-level cities and pointed out that different cities had different advantagesand disadvantages in the important grains;(2) Faced to the constraints of naturalconditions, yield per unit relied on the material and technical input to a great extent.The contribution rate of agriculture science and technology was more large during the11th five year plan period, which was only lower than that of the material input, andthat will be from62.17%to65.44%during the12th five year plan period;(3) Theforecasted reasult showed Henan province could achieve the desired objectives as therequirement of nation food strategy: the construction plan of the core ares in Henanprovince.The innovations of the paper were as follows:(1) On the basis of analysis on thecomprehensive capacity of grain prodution of Henan province, the paper made ancomparative advantage analysis of rice, wheat, corn and bean of the eighteen perfecture-level cities;(2) With the complete analysis on the influncing factors, thepaper counted the contribution rate of agriculture science and technology from the7thfive year, forecasted that of the12th five year plan period; made an analysis on theseventeen influencing factors of yield per unit with factor analysis and forecasted thegrain production in Henan province with the method of multivariate linear regressionand double moving average.