The Analysis Of The Risk Of Debt Of Local Government

The debt of local government is different from the local government debt, the category of the debt of local government not only contains clear sense of the local government debt, but also include all sorts of nominal issued by the financing platform which essentially belongs to the local government debt. Such debts due to a lack of budget constraints, and the local government of the implicit endorsement, is not sensitive to the financing rate, service efficiency of funds is relatively low. Although with the practice of the new budget law, the financing function of financing platform will gradually be dissection, but the author thinks that, at present, the issuance of local government debt is still small, do one size fits all with financing platform is not likely to happen. Therefore, this paper will adopt a wider range concept of debt of local government.Based on the debt of local government, this paper mainly uses the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, comparative analysis and other research methods, mainly solved the problems as follows: the first one is what is suitable risk analysis method for China’s debt of local government; The second one is what is the cause of local debt crisis; The third one is how to prevent the debt risk of local government.This paper is divided into six parts. The first part is introduction, mainly discussed the research background, significance, method, framework, and analyzed in this paper, the innovations and deficiencies; The second part discussed the definition and scope of the debt of local government, thoroughly discusses the connotation of the debt risk, and analyze what are the factors affecting the level of debt risk; The third part reviews and analyzes the current mainstream of some of the debt risk evaluation model, including index method, the KMV model, such as the IMF debt risk analysis framework, and put forward the analysis method adopted in this paper; The fourth part is the core of this article, the author in the IMF debt risk analysis framework on the basis of the improvement on the current situation of debt of local government in China, put forward the suitable analysis model for debt of China’s local government, taking Liaoning province as an example for the empirical analysis; The fifth part analyzes the Detroit, New York, Japan evening three typical foreign debt crisis case city, summed up the cause of the debt crisis, the three cities and analyses the debt crisis in the process of what is worth to learn from the experience and lessons of and The sixth part is the summary of the article, combined with the conclusion of this paper puts forward some policy Suggestions on how to guard against debt risk of local government.This paper studies the main conclusion is that the Liaoning province facing certain debt risk, especially when faced with a severe economic downturn and or have a debt crisis, the region will have a debt crisis may; At the same time, through the overseas debt crisis of a few typical case analysis found that the deep reason of the debt crisis due to problems with the industry, and inappropriate financial policy and the fiscal and taxation system is often in the trigger the crisis. Therefore, the author thinks that, in the process of preventing debt risk, the adjustment of industrial structure and the construction of the fiscal and taxation system is crucial.