Research On Power Supply Operation Coupling Risk Model And Decision Support System

With the deterioration of the energy, environmental issues and the rapid development of the smart grid, distributed generation, energy internet techno logy, the power industry develop towards diverse,intelligent, distributed in irreversible trend.However,a large number of distributed, renewable energy into the grid bring a more sophisticated risk to the safe and stable operation of power grid. Those both give the power grid side operational risk management a enormous challenge.So, it is necessary to study the risk management of the power supply side operation.Power supply side operational risk management is important to the security and stability operation of power grid.Previous studies primary focus on the individual risk factors mechanism, identification and prevention etc.But people have less research on how the various risk factors affect each other.They do not have it as a whole and study the combined effects of the power supply side operations.Therefore, this paper systematically study the supply side of the grid operational risk combined with system dynamics and coupling theory.Firstly, the power grid operation side risk factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of statistical method in this paper. On this basis, we have defined the power supply side coupled operational risk meanings category, and coupling process. Then, for the question of quantitative analysis of power supply side coupled operational risk situation,on the basis of qualitative analysis and comparison of common risk analysis coupling model,I construct power grid operation side risk coupling model of heterogeneous risk coupling and homogeneous risk coupling.For the situation of power grid operation side heterogeneous risk coupling,I make a couple of power supply-side N-K operational risk models for quantitative analysis. the situation of power grid operation side homogeneous risk coupling,introducing cloud model to risk coupling model,I solve the power grid operation side homogeneous risk index weights highly subjective and missing data problems.Finally, on the basis of the power supply side coupled operational risk analysis,I analyze the needs of power supply-side operational risk intelligent decision support system and I detailed design the architecture and functionality of power supply side operational risks of Intelligent Decision Support System.