Risk Management Models And Decision-making Support System Of Energy Power Plant Based On EPC

With the rapid development of economy, China has become one of the biggest countries in energy consumption. High energy consumption and low efficiency bring the serious environmental pollution and China is facing tremendous pressure to save energy and reduce emission. In order to alleviate energy resources and environment impose serious constraint to economic development effectively, improving energy efficiency, strengthening environmental protection and constructing a scientific and reasonable energy development system are imperative. China has adopted a series of measures on environment control and energy consumption, such as raising the proportion of renewable energy sources, controlling regional energy consumption, improving energy efficiency, carrying out the target responsibility system for energy conservation and emission reduction. Demand of regional energy consumption and enterprise energy efficiency is increasingly clear in these measures. On one hand, regional industrial structure must be adjusted and some high energy needed enterprises must be closed to reduce total energy consumption. On the other hand, enterprise energy saving technical can be renovated to improve energy efficiency.Efficiency power plant (Referred to as the EPP), also known as virtual power plant, produces surplus electricity mainly by reducing electricity demand of terminal electrical equipment and devices, that is, produces the same effect as construction of actual plant through equipment installed to improve power utilization efficiency on demand side. Informally speaking, save energy by altering high energy-consumption equipments and electricity saved is equal to power generation of a power plant. According to the subject of operation, efficiency power plant include the government leading operation mode, power companies leading operation mode and energy service companies leading operation mode (that is, contract energy manage mode). Contract energy manage mode is a highly market-oriented energy saving operation mode. Energy service companies can give full play to their professional advantage in energy management and power grid enterprises gain profit from it by providing technical guidance or establishing an energy service company.Under the above background, EPC-EPP project risk management system is built to guide energy efficiency power plant project risk identification, risk assessment and risk control in this paper. Analyze energy efficiency power plant operation mode and process first, from where risk factor is analyzed, and project risk mechanism is explained. Then risk index hierarchy relationship is analyzed in efficiency power plant project risk management of EPC mode. Based on the risk factors identification model, evaluation model and control model, the particularity of project risk is researched and project risk level is evaluated. Then project risk control strategy and approach are put forward. Framework of EPC-EPP project risk management decision support system is constructed last.Research works in this paper are as follows:(1) WBS-RBS risk matrix and evaluation index system of EPC-EPP project are built. According to the project life cycle theory, the entire life cycle of EPC-EPP project is divided into project decision-making stage, project preparatory stage, project construction phase stage and project acceptance and maintenance of the equipment in later period stage. Based on every stage work content, risk index evaluation system is established and WBS-RBS risk analysis matrix is built. Then, EPC-EPP project risk index is divided into external risk factors and project itself risk factors. Policy risk, market risk and customer risk are included in project external risk factors, which is a total of ten risk indicators. Financing risk, project implementation risk and benefit risk are included in project itself risk factors, which is a total of fourteen risk indicators.(2) Risk factors interpretative structural model of EPC-EPP project is established. Based on the hierarchy division result of interpretative structural model, hierarchical structures and causal transitive relation between indexes are analyzed and the forming mechanism of project risk factors is revealed. Risk factors interpretative structural model of EPC-EPP project reflects the project risk index hierarchy structure management and its effect on the role of total project risk, which lays the foundation for follow-up study.(3) The overall level of EPC-EPP project risk is evaluated by set-valued statistics method. Policy risk, market risk, customer risk, financing risk, project implementation risk and benefit risk are calculated with the set-valued statistics respectively and comprehensive evaluation result being drawn. Estimated result can reflect EPC-EPP project actual situation more really because value statistic method is used to reasonable data process. Therefore, the subjectivity of expert assignment is reduced and veracity and scientificity of project risk probability estimation are enhanced.(4) Based on the risk control system reliability distribution model, EPC-EPP project risk control strategy is put forward. EPC-EPP project is divided into project decision-making stage, project preparatory stage, project construction phase stage and project acceptance and maintenance of the equipment in later period stage. The four stages constitute the whole process of EPC-EPP project. Regarding each stage as a subsystem, the four subsystems constitute EPC-EPP project reliability analysis system. For EPC-EPP project risk control system model, starting from the system, the target reliability can be assigned to each subsystem from top to bottom. Once reliability allocation of each subsystem and basic events that constitute subsystems can meet the requirements, the target reliability of whole system can be achieved. Operation and implementation process of EPC-EPP project considered in this paper are complex parallel-series systems. According to the basic principle of system reliability allocation, reliability theory and fault tree analysis are combined and reliability allocation is depended on importance degree of each basic event or unit. Then the reliability distribution problem of complex system can be solved effectively.(5) Framework of EPC-EPP project risk management decision support system is constructed. Data base, model base and method base of EPC-EPP project risk analysis are constructed to make decision system can support EPC-EPP project risk decision analysis and provide basis for realization the EPC-EPP project risk management and decision. Finally, the level of risk control and management can be improved effectively.