The Early Warning Of Operational Risk For BSK Company

Affected by the world financial crisis impact, the global economy is in a low wander stage, where every country and nation is looking for some new power of development to recover their economy. Manufacturing industry, as a cornerstone of national development and core competitiveness, is paid more attention and is attracting more eyes now. After the investment driven and resource oriented growth model, Chinese economy is faced with many serious and big problems, such as over-capacity, asset-bubbles and environmental pollution. As a consequence, to change the style of economic increase and to readjust the industrial structure had been the main trend of the new circle of our economic reform. Chinese enterprises original cost advantage has been weakened as people’s pay is higher and resource’s price is higher considerably, which means that if we really want to strengthen our enterprises, we need to create our new advantage of competition eagerly by improving operation efficiency, reducing cost and promoting quality.Based on a non-stop five-year operation data and industry data at the same time, in this thesis, I will screen several indexes which can reflect sales, producing, stock and financial so as to set up the operational risk warning indicator system. Each limit of safety, early warning and danger has been fixed through analyzing early warning index compared with the same industries and model enterprises. Then, with the help of data-analysis software, statistical prediction model and linear trend forecasting model can be used to forecast the operational data. Then, calculate the correlation coefficient of each index and profit, and determine the weight of each index in the early warning system in the method of expert scoring. As a result, the enterprise’s own operational system can be set up. When the risk index or the actual or predictive value of individual indicator comes beyond the safety limits, the signal of risk early warning will be sent and the management needs to take them into consideration and take actions to improve their enterprise.In this thesis, readers will see that annual appraisal target can be set up via the performance evaluation system. Besides that, the aim to communicate, control process and analyze the prediction can be fulfilled by means of monthly management reports. In the end, the author also states how to set up unified information platform to improve the functions of data collection, analysis and early warning. This paper can spread numerous benefits as it is led by market. In addition, it contains the management thoughts of improving internal efficiency and effectiveness. It also puts forward some measures of strengthening operation management to direct the development of the enterprise. The assessment criteria are optimized, too. All in all, it can help the management to manage their operation process and control some risks.