Research On Economic Operation Early Warning And Management Mechanism Of Civil Aviation Industry

The civil aviation transportation industry is an important strategic industry in our country's national economy.With the increasing demand of civil aviation transportation,the civil aviation transportation economy has been rapidly developed.The civil aviation transportation economy has become an important growth point of our economy.The ups and downs of the civil aviation economy are directly related to the healthy and stable development of the civil aviation industry.This requires a comprehensive analysis of the development trend of the civil aviation industry's economic operation.Through the introduction of early-warning management ideology and theory,it establishes an early warning system for civil aviation industry economic operations,scientifically grasps the trend of economic operation of the civil aviation industry,dynamically manages the economic operation of the civil aviation industry,and promptly discovers the civil aviation industry.The potential danger signals in the course of economic operation provide the decision basis for civil aviation related departments to adopt regulatory management measures to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the civil aviation industry.This article first introduces the research background and significance,research content,research methods and possible innovations,etc.After comprehensively studying domestic and foreign related theories and research results about economic early warning and monitoring and early warning in the field of transportation,this article systematically analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of economic operation and problems with regulatory management mechanisms of civil aviation industry,defining the connotation and characteristics of early warning system of civil aviation economic operation.Considering the characteristics of the economic operation of the civil aviation industry,an early warning system for the economic operation of the civil aviation industry was constructed,and the realization of the two major functions of monitoring and early warning were separately described.First of all,in order to realize the monitoring function,this paper selects 20 indicators from four aspects to constitute the civil aviation industry economic operation monitoring index system,and classifies them with the grey correlation analysis method.Through the calculation of the diffusion index and the composite index,the economic development of the civil aviation industry in 2007-2016 will be analyzed.The second is the realization of the early warning function,this paper establishes an early warning signal model for the civil aviation industry's economic operation,determines the early warning limit,and uses the signal lamp diagram to intuitively describe the degree of cold and hot economic operation of the civil aviation industry.The BP neural network model is used to predict the civil aviation economy in the next two years,and the forecasted result serves as a warning.Finally,a civil aviation industry economic operation early-warning management mechanism was established to ensure the normal operation of the civil aviation industry's economic operation early-warning system,and based on the results of monitoring and early warning,corresponding warning management measures were proposed.