The Influence Of The Carbon Tariffs Imposed On China’s Export Trade

This article applies GTAP-E model and the newest data in version 8.0 of GTAP database published in 2011. It simulates and analyses the influence on Chinese export trade volume, export trade structure and industrial structure when European Union, the United States or Japan impose carbon tariffs on China respectively or collectively.This article categorizes the "foreign account" into the United States, the European Union’s 27 countries, eastern Europe and Russia, Japan, China, net energy exporter, India and other countries and regions of the world, therefore we can study more detailed impact of carbon tariffs on our country’s trade. In the meanwhile, according to density of carbon emission, all industries are broken down into agricultural production department, coal mining, crude oil industry, gas, petroleum products industry, electricity power, energy intensive industries and other industrial and services sectors, allowing the simulation to analyze the influence of carbon tariffs on industries with different carbon density.The simulation results show that when European Union, the United States or Japan impose carbon tariffs on China, whether respectively or collectively, it will deteriorate China’s terms of trade and reduce the export volume. The impact differs for different industries, industries with high density of carbon emission and industries whose export to European Union, the United States or Japan account for large proportion of total output will suffer more negative affection. The output and export volume of energy intensive industries will be decreased; the output and export volume of other industrial and services sectors will be increased.