The Research Of Supply Chain Default Risk Transmission And Control Based On Complex Network Theory

As is known to all, Chinese society is a complex relational society. With the Improvement of Chinese economic system, and economic globalization further today, all kinds of interpersonal relationship including relationships between the enterprise, alliance, national relationship affects the stability of the global economy. How to study? Perspective there are a lot of ways, the relationship exquisite depicted by Lin Yu-tang, Huang Guo-guang as a psychologist, from worldly wisdom and networks to depict, for digital rigorous sociology scholars abroad after seventy years of human social development history of research choice, from the perspective of the social structure, social science has been revealed through quantitative research. Complex networks theory significance lies in the fact that it can precise quantitative analysis was carried out on the various relationships, thus to build some mid-level theory and real certificate inspection provide quantitative tools, can even build a bridge between the macroscopic and microscopic., on the other hand, along with the increase in global natural disasters and emergencies, countries and regions the outbreak of the financial crisis, market supply and demand is difficult to grasp the trading information together with supply chain structure is complicated, makes the stability of supply chain become more vulnerable. China as the prominent large economies, although the national economy growth rate compared with the same dimension countries are still at higher levels, but the market maturity, the industry development status and the social credit environment construction and so on various aspects compared with the developed countries there is still a large gap. So for each industry supply chain network structure and internal research in China will also be compared with the previous western theory of complex network are different; As members of the supply chain network, enterprise in the face of the higher risk of default contagion, and network with interaction relationship between corporate default risk transmission, counter measures will become more complex. Therefore, the supply chain network structure and the statistical characteristics of a comprehensive understanding of, related to the risk of default contagion model was constructed, on the macro can make up for some default risk transmission mechanism in supply chain network research, on microscopic help supply chain risk control strategy.In this paper, on the basis of the existing literature research, quantitative analysis for the core manufacturers distributors network transmission effect of the outbreak of the risk of default, the rumor spreading model, on the basis of introducing the related factors of default, build the secondary transmission network of supply chain risk model, distributors network structure of the member enterprises of the correlation of intensity degree caused by the systemic research on the risk of default interactive transmission problem. This article first detailed analysis of the features of the complex network structure, and combining the supply chain relationship types, using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to evaluate supply chain network enterprise connection weights, and these relationships as a network node degree of quantitative factors. On this basis, the use of SHKR rumor propagation model, to manufacturers- the distributor secondary supply chain network as the research object, constructing two-level supply chain risk of default contagion model manufacturers- the distributor, found the distributor network, the greater the average the higher the probability of connection between nodes in, the greater is the impact on the core manufacturer default risk outbreak, the longer the spread is, and the lower was positively to jump. Then from the whole supply chain network to local, to reduce the research scope of supply chain risk of default view change and risk control strategy research, through the model building and simulation analysis, in order to effectively reduce the injury to a domestic default risk of supply chain, supply chain node enterprises must strengthen the initial risk identification, assessment and early warning capabilities, and set up supply chain partner selection scheme carefully.