The Study In Dynamic Forcast Models Of The Consumption Expenditure Structure、Leveland Price Index Of China

Residents’ consumption level and consumption structure evolution with the the increase of per income level of a nation or region reflects the life quality level of the people, and the consumer price index reflects the real income level and the macro economic environment, which influences the consumption level and consumption structure of the residents. As the main part of domestic consumption, consumption is the main driving force of economic growth, so it has important practical significance to forecast the consumption of the residents of the country or region. Because of China’s social existence of urban and rural residents of two yuan structure, this paper also predicts the consumption of urban and rural residents in China.Firstly, this paper summarizes the current situation of economic forecasting methods and consumption forecasting, and then analyzes the basic theory and main methods of economic forecasting.Secondly, the forecast of the consumption level of urban and rural residents in China,and put forward the dynamic forecasting model based on the theory of consumption, and the effect of the dynamic forecast model is tested, and the results show that it has high precision, and the forecast of the 2015-2016 year.Again, the forecast of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China, and put forward the forecast model, which is based on the increase of the per income of the residents, and consider the correlation between the various consumer items.In the end, the forecast of consumption price index of urban and rural residents in China is put forward. Based on the model, the effect of the model is tested, and the effect is good, and then the consumption price level of the residents in 2015-2016 is predicted.