Study On The Moderate Diversification Of Industry On Macao

The adjustment of industrial structure is constantly happened along with economic development, is an interaction and mutual adjustment process, Changes in the industrial structure can drive the growth of economic, economic growth then reverse effect on the industrial structure, to promote industry structure adjust and transform along with the development of the economy. In the face of today’s complex and diverse demand, the effect of industrial structure adjustment and change on economic growth is more and more obvious, the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has become a modern endogenous factors of economic growth.When the industrial structure and economic development are not coordinated, adjust the industrial structure is the only way, and is an effective way to improve the level of economic development and social welfare. Therefore, the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure is the key factor to realize rapid economic development, the research and guidance of the industrial structure adjustment also has the important theoretical and practical significance.Industrial structure has become a vital factor influence the economic growth. In this paper,based on the traditional industrial structure theory and the research result of the evolution of Macao industrial structure by the domestic and foreign scholars, comprehensive analysis and evaluation, find out the breakthrough point of the article. First of all, this paper base on the analysis of the characteristics of the industrial structure of Macao economy, and using Gini coefficient of industry defined Macao industry structure deformity, the results show that the deformity of Macao industrial structure is seriously, the industry pattern of gambling "one industry alone big" has become the bottleneck for the further sustainable development of the economy on Macau; Secondly, the article analyses the necessity of Macao industry diversification from various aspects, the results show that the gambling industry is in dominant, Macau’s economic development strongly depend on it, so it is urgent to moderate diversified industry; Thirdly, the article use time-series trend extrapolation method with autoregressive and moving average model to explore the future trend of Macao industrial structure based on the actual situation of Macao, and forecast the future output value of the Macau thirteen industry, then quantitative research the development trend of the industry on Macau in the next five years. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, putforward the overall thinking, development path and the development strategy of Macao industry moderate diversification. All in all, this paper is to provide a reasonable decision reference for Macao to build a world-class international leisure tourism center in Macao.