Study On Ecological Land Use Change And Its Simulation Based On The CA-Markov Model In Foshan City

Since the 17 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the theory and practice of the construction of ecological civilization in China had a continuous development, while the China’s urbanization development was accelerating, the size of the cities and towns was increasing, however, the question that ecological land in cities and towns reduced, ecological barriers disappeared and other ecological problems gradually highlighted. Foshan City is located in the heart of the Pearl River Delta where like the most cities that social economic experienced rapid development, existing a series of problems, such as land use extensive, the layout of urban and rural construction land was scattered and chaotic, land pollution was more serious and urban and regional ecological land droped markly, and so on. Regional ecological land using have an great significance to maintenance the regional ecological balance, the research and analysis of the use of ecological land is conducive to the rational development and protection. In this paper, the status and process of the space-time dynamic change of Foshan City’s ecological land from 1990 to 2013 were analyzed and the factors that affect the change were explored, the changing situation of Foshan City’s ecological land in 2020 was simulated with the cellular automata model. According to the specific characteristics of Foshan City, this paper put forward the countermeasures for sustainable utilization of regional ecological land use, in order to provide a scientific reference for sustainable land use in Foshan city.In this paper, after the representative four years’(1990, 2000, 2006 and 2013) Landsat TM image data of Foshan City were interpreted, land use database was established as the foundation, diviving it into four types: agricultural ecological land, forest ecological land, bottomland ecological land and waters ecological land.Combine with the social economy, terrain, transportation and other date of Foshan City, using the land-use dynamic degree, the transfer matrix of land-use change and the direction and distance of the weight transfer of land-use methods to analyse the current situation of ecological land use, the chang process of space-time dynamic. On this basis, the development trend of Foshan City’s ecological land of Foshan City in 2020 was simulated based on the CA-Markov model, and then put forward the sustainable utilization strategy of ecological land in Foshan City, main results are as follows:(1)Ecological land in Foshan City decreased rapidly between 1990-2013, the area reduced from 344861.41hm2 to 265642.99hm2, the proportion of the total land area of ecological land reduced from 90.81% to 69.95%, a decrease of 20.86%, a decrease of 79218.42hm2. The rate of change is-23.00% and the dynamic degree is-1.00 over a period of 23 years. The amount that ecological land had transfered to construction land is far more than the transfer amount of ecological land in its interior, the quantity of the time period of 2000-2006 years changed highlightly, the most changed prominent ecological land was the agro-ecological land.(2)Between 1990-2013, spatial variation of ecological land in Foshan City was obvious, showing the trend of "core periphery". Core area basically covered Chancheng, Nanhai and Shunde District, including the well location and traffic conditions Guangfo corridor areas including Guicheng, Dali town, and so on. The ecological area of the towns in eastern and central regions decrease in amplitude and velocity were significantly. While the remote location of the western and northern edge of Foshan where the economic ties with the surrounding weakiy, the ecological land was protected better, decreased more slowly, such as Xiqiao Town. The center of gravity of ecological land continued migrated to southwestward, migration distance is 3914.59 m, and migration angle is 7.28° during the study period.(3)Population growth, economic development, industrial structure changes, residents’ living standards improvement, traffic conditions and technological development are the main factors that lead to the change of ecological land use in Foshan city. The proportion of the ecological land in lower elevation and slope reduce higher, it was negatively correlated with each other. Between 1990-2013, the proportion of ecological land within 0-20 m elevation decreased 23.91% and ecological land on 0-2oslope fell 24.50% in Foshan City. The ecological land that have superior geographical position in the firstly and secondary towns decreased greatly, which had more area to be converted into construction land, its proportion decreased by 42.88%, 36.65%. The change of ecological land within district center and town center buffer zone is different in each year, whereas the common point is that the farther distance away from the district center and town center, the proportion of ecological land accounted for the total was higher. The ecological land within 6-12 km buffer area of the district center magnituded more, and ecological land in the buffer zone that away from the town center 0-4km had a higher reduction in amplitude, indicating that smaller administrative units impacted on the ecological land in town center greater. The ecological land of farther away from the distance to traffic road has a higher proportion, the influence that road laying and development within the lineside areas had on the change of the structure and number of the ecological land showed obvious "shaft" rules, as well as the closer distance from the road, ecological land changes faster, On the contrary was slower.(4)Using CA-Markov model to simulate the ecological land in Foshan city in 2013, in addition to bottom land, ecological land quantity simulation accuracy is about 95% expact, the average spatial simulation accuracy is 89.02%, and the reliability is high. On this basis, the ecological land use in 2020 was simulated and predicted, and the results showed that: in 2020, ecological land area is about 261818.06hm2, compared with 2013, the overall reduction in the number is 3824.93hm2, the change rate is-1.44%, dynamic degree is-0.21, magnitude and speed of the change decreased compared to the period of 2006-2013; there are subtle differences in the pattern of ecological land use in 2020 and 2013, basically maintained the distribution pattern in 2013, and the changes of various land use types are in line with the trend of economic and social development in Foshan City in the future.(5)To realize the sustainable utilization of the ecological land in Foshan City, in the macro level, the strategy of economic development should be adjusted and the industrial structure of the transformation should be optimized. In the specific level of ecological land protection, the scale of construction land should be controlled, and the quality of ecological land should be improved; In order to maintaining the ecological land integrity of the area, we should strictly monitor of ecological land and regulate their exploitation, strengthening ecological security controls and implementing regional category management to restore and regulate of different types of ecological land were urgent.