Based On Ca-markov Model Of Land Ecological Security Research On The Spatio-temporal Evolution

Land is fundamental to human existence,is one of the important conditions of human development and the survival of civilization.In recent years,with the rapid social and economic development,as well as accelerating urbanization,population to the City Central,land-use/cover change,and land use and contradictions of human survival and economic development.In the 1980 of the 20 th century,the combined application of remote sensing technology and geographical information systems for the study of land use patterns and processes to provide a strong tool,but changes in the type of land use is difficult to explain and resolve the contradiction between people and land,especially land cannot be dynamic simulation and forecasting the evolution of ecological security.Dynamic simulation of the evolution process of land ecological security has become the focus of academic research paper in Lushunkou District,Dalian as a case,based on the CA-Markov model of land ecological security pattern evolution,Lushunkou District in order to provide a basis for future land-use planning and sustainable development.In this paper,Lushunkou District of Dalian as the research area,using ENVI5.1 to 2004,2009,2014 remote sensing image of the basic processing three,according to the “Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response ” index system,build leeg in ArcGIS network database.Through ArcGIS of space analysis measuring three period land ecological security state,and will grid network data evaluation results by vector-gate grid into to IDRISI in the,building land health security CA-Markov model,respectively calculation each two period Zhijian of land ecological security evolution in the of security grade transfer matrix,while simulation simulation evolution process;after test Hou,again will this evolution model on future of land ecological security evolution for forecast Draw the following conclusions:(1)the Lushunkou District of land ecological security dynamics simulation results show that: ten years of 2004-2014,the evolution of land ecological safety in Lushunkou District is a critical safety has gradually reduced state increases the scope of the above process,critical security and ecological security of land development and recovery from fast to slow the process of nature.Land ecological safety in the next five years,Lushunkou District shown: 2019,Lushunkou District land ecological security status continues to go well,but compared with the previous decade's good speed decreased,most of the area remains in a good state.(2)evaluation based on GIS grid data,compared to the district as the evaluation unit evaluation methods,more clearly reflect the spatial heterogeneity in dealing with ecological safety evaluation of small scale has an advantage on the issue.CA-Markov model simulation and prediction of land use changes,and on land ecological safety evaluation results can be cellular automata simulation and prediction.(3)through analysis the period evaluation results figure,and dynamic simulation results figure,and forecast simulation results figure can see: land ecological security grade high regional General for larger range of natural woodland or nature reserve,second is arable land and city regional,worst of regional often for city regional and arable land,and woodland of cross regional,that to class spot block smaller,and dispersed and clutter of regional land ecological security grade worst.