Regional Temporal Optimization Of Sustainable Land Use Based On The SD-Dinamica EGO Model

As the carrier of all the resources and environmental elements, land plays an vital role in human survival and development. With the rapid growth of population and development of social economy, the demand of land also is increasing, how to ease the pressure of various needs on land resources, how to plan and utility the land resources sustainably become one of the hottest issues in geography and related disciplines. This paper selects the typical area of rapid urbanization:Yixing City in Yangtze River Delta region as a study area, carried out the following research work.The basic data of land is interpreted by remote sensing data from 2000 to 2010, analyzing the characteristics of land use change in four areas:the degree of land use, the degree of dynamic land use, the regional differences in land use change, the diversity of land use types by using exponential analysis. The results showed that the degree of land use is changeless in the past ten years in Yixing City, the area of arable land and rural residential land is reducing, the area of forest land and construction land is increasing by years, the differences in different regions is insignificant, the diversity index of land use types is decreasing.This paper cited the hybrid model of SD model and Dinamica EGO based on the analysis of the characteristics of land use change in Yixing City. The SD model forecast the demand of land use from a macro level, while the Dinamica EGO model predicted the results of spatial structure in land use in Yixing City from a micro level.Analyzing the sustainable land use of Yixing City in considering the relationship between the sustainable land use and social, economic, environmental, simulating and predicting the land use structure of Yixing City from 2010 to 2020 in the mode of existing development, the mode of develop economic priority and the mode of coordination environmental development. The results showed that the number of patches of landscape pattern, the density of landscape pattern patches, the index of Shannon diversity, the index of fractal dimension, the index of landscape shape of the mode of existing development is higher than the indexes of the mode of coordination environmental development. In contrast, the average plaque area of the mode of coordination environmental development is larger than the existing development mode. We can conclude the mode of coordination environmental development is the best mode by contrasting which provide the advice for the sustainable land use and the strategy of the development of regional socio-economic.