Quantitative Models For Assessing The Marine Economy Sustainable Development In Coastal Cities: The Perspective Of Metabolic-recycling In The Bohai Sea Ring Area,china

Ocean has become important areas of human development and survival in the 21 st century due to contradiction between the land and the human.As increasingly development of marine resource and creating of a series of new marine industries,marine economy has been rapid development,and has a significant strategic position in the national economic and social development.Although marine development provides a broad range of benefits for humans,it can also cause various problems,such as excessive consumption of marine resources and increasing eco-environmental damages in coastal areas.Given that nearly half of the human population lives in coastal areas,we urgently need new analytical models to guide how we cope with the problems and to connect human development with the ocean's capacity to sustain our progress.In this paper,firstly,lots of literatures on marine economy sustainable development are compiled.The latest research progress of related fields at home and abroad is analyzed,and some reviews are given on the assessment of marine economy sustainable development.Based on the understanding of the related theories of marine economy sustainable development,the metabolic cycle capabilities were set as a key point in this study.This paper introduces quantitative models for assessing the marine economy sustainable development.The indicator system for marine economy sustainable development assessment was established.The quantitative assessment models,consisting of the developmental degree(DD),harmonious degree(HD),and metabolic-recycling degree(MD),are then constructed.Secondly,based on the data on 17 coastal cities from 2000 to 2011 in the BSRA,the indicator system for marine economy sustainable development assessment was established.To ensure the reasonableness of the indicator weight,we combine the advantages and disadvantages of both the AHP and the Entropy methods.this study proposes an integrated weighting method that allows for the insights of both the subjective and the objective approaches.The models are applied to measure the DD,HD,and MD of the cities so as to get the degree of sustainable development.The kernel density estimation method is employed to analyze the dynamic evolution of marine economy sustainable development throughout the study period.The analysis of temporal variation at three points reveals that based on the shape of the curves,the sustainabledevelopment levels of cities were beginning to exhibit a polarized tendency by 2005,while they increased as a whole over the period 2000 to 2011.According to the mean and standard deviation of the classification statistics,the spatial patterns for 17 cities are divided into 4grades: strong,medium,weak,and very weak.The cities with weak or very weak sustainable development levels are mainly located in northwestern BSRA.Finally,we find that the main influencing factors of HOSSD differ considerably between the 17 cities and 3 groups.Our approach allows the visualization of how these dimensions of HOSSD differ from city to city,providing important insights into short-term and long-term policies that may help enhance sustainability at a particular location,which has certain practical significance for the sustainable development of marine economy in this area.