Study On The Equilibrium And Evolution Of Marine Economy Development In China

With large-scale development and utilization of land resources,the contradiction between man and land is becoming more and more serious,pushing people began to pay attention to marine resources and their potential economic value.Human activities in the coastal areas are expanding at an unprecedented scale.With the development of the marine economy,the position and function of the ocean in the national economy is becoming more and more important and the ocean has become an important pillar of our national economy.With the continuous development of marine resources and the formation of marine economic region,there are significant differences in the levels of marine economic development and the development levels of the same marine industry groups in different regions.This will become a major concern behind the rapid growth of China's marine economy,and is bound to affect realize the goal of the construction of marine power in China.In this context,it is of practical significance to study the evolution and development of marine economy,to grasp the law of marine economic development and to promote the rapid,coordinated and sustainable development of marine economy.This study focuses on China's coastal area and their marine economic development.Combined with marginal effect theory and based on the Gini coefficient decomposition model,we studied the characteristics and the internal mechanism of the regions and structure equilibrium of the marine economy in 1996-2014.The results show that although the time node of the region equilibrium from weak to strong is different based on per capita marine output and coast economic density,the equilibrium of region economic development in our country in 1996-2014 takes on a overall from weak to strong trend.The structure equilibrium at first was weak and then become weak to strong trend which similar changes in the time node just like changes in the regional equilibrium.By analyzing the marginal effect of Gini coefficient,we found that improve the northern marine output and improve the level of southern coastline resources utilization are conductive to improve the equilibrium of the marine economic zones.Improvement the output of the first industry and the tertiary industry in the specific year are conductive to the improvement of the equilibrium of the marine economic structure.In today's focus on the development of the second and third industry,at the same time,we should also pay attention to the development of the first industry in theregion and use marine science and technology to transform and upgrade the marine first industry.Applying the information diffusion method,the study establishes a kernel density function and its decomposition using a marine economic per capita as the index of the model,to depict the dynamic evolution law and the internal influential factors of the Chinese marine economy during 1996-2014.At the same time,the difference of density distribution is divided into three parts to investigate the reasons for the change of marine economic development in coastal provinces.There are three factors affecting the dynamic evolution of China's marine economy.First,the most influential is mean effect,followed by,second,the variance effect,and third,the least influential residual effect.The study shows that: the Chinese marine economy as a whole has been growing,and the marine economy began to develop even more rapidly after 2004.The provinces with low level of marine economic development in coastal provinces have moved to the middle and higher levels,and the middle and high level of development of the provinces continue to increase.Finally,we found that the main influence factors of the development of marine economy and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the rapid,coordinated and sustainable development of the marine economy,in order to help the decision makers to make the middle and long term planning.