Realizability Of Energy-saving And Carbon Emissions Reduction Target In Tianjin's 12th Five-Year Plan

To achieve its 2020 carbon reduction commitment, China introduced its first carbon intensity target in the 12 th Five-Year Plan(FYP) and decomposed the national target to provinces. Thus, each province has both an energy-saving target(energy intensity target) and carbon emissions reduction target(carbon intensity target) in its regional 12 th FYP. Are the carbon intensity target and energy intensity target consistent? How realizable are these targets? Taking Tianjin as a case, this paper explores the above questions.Based on the statistical data, This paper conducts an overall evaluation of the current situation and trend of economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions in Tianjin from the multiple dimensions of industrial structure, energy category, and comparative analysis, and shows a severe situation of energy saving and emission reducing.By collecting energy intensity data of Tianjin, a development track is drawn, based on which, this paper analyzes the main reason of changes in energy intensity by combining quantitative method with qualitative method. Through the analysis, this paper shows the developing trend of energy intensity, based on which this paper uses curve trend extrapolation to forecast energy intensity in Tianjin in 2015 and compares it with the stated energy intensity target in Tianjin's 12 th FYP to examine its realizability. Besides, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the energy-saving policies in Tianjin's 12 th FYP to determine the realizability of the energy intensity target from the perspective of the energy policies.Through a discussion on the relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity, this paper decomposes the carbon intensity into energy intensity and carbon emission factor of primary energy consumption, and studies consistency of carbon intensity and energy intensity targets; that is examining the realizability of the carbon intensity target in Tianjin in the case that the energy intensity target is achieved.The results show that the energy efficiency factor played a dominant role in energy intensity variation in Tianjin, while the role of the industrial structural factor was relatively small. Within the energy efficiency effect, the energy efficiency effect of secondary industry dominated, followed by the energy efficiency effect of the tertiary industry; the energy efficiency effect of primary industry was very small. Therefore, the trajectory of energy intensity was mainly affected by the changes in energy intensity of the secondary industry and tertiary industry. The probability of realizing the energy intensity target in Tianjin is greater than 95% assuming continuation of the current trend in energy intensity, and Tianjin is fully capable of achieving its energy intensity target with the energy-saving policies to be implemented. Based on the goal of the primary energy structure optimization, Tianjin's carbon intensity and energy intensity targets are consistent, and Tianjin can achieve its carbon intensity target as the energy intensity target can be achieved.