Research On The Effect Mechanism Of Energy Intensity And Carbon Emission In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based On Factor Decomposition

At present,the carbon emission problem of urban agglomeration is a hot issue which attaches the country's attention.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei?BTH?as the largest urban group in China,its political status and locational superiority all determine the influence of the region.How to improve the contradiction among economic development,energy security and carbon emissions is the topics of the thesis.In order to clarify the intrinsic causes of energy intensity and carbon emission changes and their contribution,a multi-layer factor decomposition framework has been constructed.And on the basis of the mathematical relationship of factor decomposition,the internal correlation of carbon emission system is identified,including the mechanism between energy intensity and carbon emission,which can be deeply excavated and understood.As a result,practical recommendations for energy conservation and emission reduction have been proposed as the scientific basis for the development of cooperative integration and the formulation of carbon emission control policies for energy consumption in BTH.Aiming at the economic and energy development of BTH region,this paper uses inventory method to accounting carbon emission of energy consumption.And then factor decomposition analysis and system dynamics method are used to analyze the action path of energy intensity and carbon emission,from a system perspective.Using the coefficient of carbon emission inventory,the CO₂ of BTH from energy consumption has been measured totally and calculated separately in each region.And the decomposition equations are constructed by economic development,population size,energy intensity,energy structure and industrial structure,through Kaya identity.The first-layer decomposition utilizes LMDI method to recognize the influencing factors of carbon emission in the BTH regions from 2005 to 2015.The contribution of factors are analyzed,which verifies that the energy intensity has a significant impact on the carbon emissions.Thus,the second-layer decomposition,targeted at energy intensity,employs the generalized Fisher index?GFI?decomposition method that can explain the linkage effect of each variable and any combination of other variables.Based on the input-output function,the energy intensity equation is converted into energy substitution,technological progress,labor substitution,capital substitution and resource allocation respectively.Finally,the system Dynamics model of the action path between energy intensity and carbon emission is constructed to simulate the development trend of energy consumption carbon emission in BTH for 2005-2015,and the mechanism of energy intensity and carbon emission is analyzed in depth.The boundary and influencing factors of carbon emission system are determined by multi-layer factor decomposition.In view of this,the paper puts forward the proposal of energy saving and emission reduction policy for the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation,and then gives the"non-one-cut"solution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region according to local conditions.And from the independent innovation,low-carbon economy,carbon finance and clean energy replacement four aspects of the carbon emission reduction path,in order to promote the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region energy intensity decline and energy consumption carbon emission reduction to provide policy advice.