Decomposition And Prediction Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry

Chinese economy has grown at a high rate. This growth has led to great increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. China is the world's largest energy user. With playing important role in the global emission mitigation, C hina is facing increasing pressure from the international community. C hina nonferrous metals industry has an important position in the economic development. The nonferrous metals industry consumes large amounts of energy and emissions o f carbon dioxide are very high. Actions to reduce carbon emissions and energy consumption are warranted. We analyze the changes of carbon emissions in the nonferrous metals industry from 2000 to 2011. The dominant factor influence of carbon dioxide changes, the emission reduction performance of all provinces and the mitigation potential of the nonferrous metal industry carbon emissions have been studied.Firstly, the carbon emission of non-ferrous metals industry is calculated in this paper. The energy consumption and carbon emission of nonferrous metal industry are grew rapidly in 2000-2011. The energy consumption has been dominated by electricity and coal.Secondly, since the decomposition analysis results of various provinces are too complex to analyze, a classification system is used to study the regional differences. All provinces are divided into five types. The em ission reduction performance of each province can be known. In the two time periods, Hebei has the best performance while Chongqing has the worst performance. Liaoning, Jilin and Sichuan improved the most while Anhui and Guizhou deteriorated the most in the second time period.Finally, this paper established the Scenario analysis model based on LMDI. Carbon dioxide emissions of nonferrous metal industry in 2020 are predicted. The contribution of each factor in carbon dioxide change is studied. And further sets two scenarios to estimate the carbon emission reduction potential. The results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of nonferrous metal industry are quite different in the different scenarios. The potential of emission reduction is huge. The driving factors of carbon dioxide changes are still economic scale and energy intensity. So controlling economic scale expansion and improving the energy intensity are the focus points of future emission reduction work.Through the research of the above three parts, we can study the characteristics, the main influence factors, the future development trend and t he emission reduction potential of carbon dioxide emission in non- ferrous metals industry. These results may provide some support for the government to formulate emiss ion reduction targets and policy. At the same time, the research mentality of this paper can also be extended to other industries and countries.