The Roadway Deformation Prediction Of Unequal Interval Sequence In Daye Iron Mine Contact Zone

Some roadway of Daye iron mine traverse the mine contact zone of complicated geological conditions.Due to the physical and mechanical parameters exists larger differences between the contact rocks mass,the overall deformation law of surrounding rock is not obvious.In order to grasp the contact zone roadway surrounding rock deformation trend of Daye iron mine a nd predict the roadway roof deformation and failure,roadway deformation monitoring test is conducted in Jianlinshan mining area-90 m level,and collect relativistic deformation of 11~#~14~# approach roadway roof original sequence.Based on the roadway roof relative deformation sequence is irregularity and approximate S shape,the grey Verhulst model is applied to the roadway deformation prediction in research.In allusion to the problem that structural parameters of time response function affect the accurac y of forecast values,the background value formula of grey Verhulst model is reconstruction;due to the new information priority principle of grey system theory,optimize the initial conditions;the grey Verhulst model is established which improved the background value combining with the initial condition.By the calculation of the relative deformation of roadway roof as an example,the model goodness-of-fit improved from 2.86 to 1.27.Considering the impact of time interval ?t on the forecast result,embed ?t as time influence factor in prediction model to modify,the unequal interval sequence Verhulst improved model is set up.The model can well match the unequal interval deformation sequence of Daye iron mine contact roadway.The unequal interval Verhulst improved model is applied to the other approaches of roadway roof deformation prediction,the results show that the model fitting effect is good,the prediction accuracy reaches the expected requirements.This method can be used as one of the effective means of roadway deformation prediction in Daye iron mine contact zone,as well as provides a new thinking and method for the prediction of underground roadway deformation.