Research On Transportation Carbon Emissions Of Traffic Forecasts And Influencing Factors

Environmental pollution is getting worse in many parts. PM2.5 often exceeded. People's health is facing a huge threat, in such a situation, there is growing attention to environmental protection. In recent years, China's transportation industry has made great progress, of course, which is very much in energy consumption, and pollution caused by the corresponding also very serious. In this grim situation, the problem of energy saving on transportation research is necessary.Firstly, 1998-2012 energy consumption in the transportation sector, based on estimates of the past 15 years of carbon emissions, which can be divided into several stages were analyzed on the basis of studies of traffic transportation carbon emissions rapid growth reasons. Then, the transport into the transport of goods and passenger transport both to analyze the impact of these two factors to study energy consumption by energy decomposition model, the result is transport turnover growth is the biggest factor. Finally, based on the above three factors, set up two scenarios, one is the standard scenario, an energy-saving scenarios, calculate the energy saving potential of energy-saving scenario 2020-2030. The results show the potential for cargo transportation in 2020, the year of saving energy is the energy consumption of the standard scenarios under minus the amount of energy consumed in energy conservation scenario model, is expected to reach 95,333,900 tons of standard coal, to the 2030 year can be added to 142,323,500 tons of standard coal; the corresponding potential of China's passenger transportation in the year 2020 to 16.653 million tons of energy conservation standard coal, and by the year 2030 can be added to 3632.25 tons of standard coal. Finally, summarize research findings, and make recommendations for improvement and research prospects shortcomings of this article.