The Estimates And Factor Analysis Of Embodied Carbon Of Industrial Goods' Export Trade In Gansu Province

The issue of global warming is becoming more and more serious year by year, the emission reduction of other greenhouse gas including carbon dioxide is considered as an effective way to mitigate the trend of global warming, which has become the important issue discussed around the world.Many researchers draw a conclusion after they did a lot of research and discussion, free trade will increase the amount of carbon dioxide emissions. In order to make the goal of carbon emission reduction come true, developed countries will move those industries with high energy consumption and high pollution to other developing countries. Those developing countries usual y have lower demand for environment, they will produce more energy-intensive products to meet the demand of market. Finally, the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the whole world will be increased.In the activities of each department national economy, as an energy intensive sector, the industrial department's energy consumption accounts for about 40% of global energy use, obviously it has to be considered as the main department of carbon emissions. As an important energy and raw material industrial base in China, the traditional high energy resources consumption, high investment industries take a great proportion in the industrial economy in Gansu province. However, the amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu province will continue to grow with the further advance of the level of economic development and industrialization. All these problems will become a bottleneck of restricting sustainable development of the economy and environment in Gansu province in the near future.Based on the situation of Gansu's economic recently, combine with the 2007 Gansu's input-output table, the input-output model is used to measure the amount of embodied carbon emissions in Gansu's industrial goods' export trade. The trend of embodied carbon emission coefficient changing in 10 years is also analyzed. Three industry departments which industrial goods have most emissions are picked up and explained. Then the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method(LMDI)is used to find the three factors which influencing the amount of embodied carbon emissions of Gansu's industrial goods' export trade, which are scale effects, structure effects and carbon intensity effects. Then each factor's contribution to the total amount and each department is measured. I wish the conclusion of this paper could help to provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for the future energy strategy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategy of Gansu province, which also can effectively improve the ecological environment in Gansu province for the purpose of achieving the win-win situation that the goal of reducing the pressure on resources and the healthy development of environment.