The Research Of Carbon Emission Rights Initial Allocation And Equity Evaluation System

With the global climate changing and the temperature rising, many countries are aware of the dangers of the emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Therefore, more and more countries have been trying to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases through various means. For the developing countries like China, with rapid economic growth, the emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing year by year. For this reason, many developed countries limit Chinese economic growth, and they require China take more obligations at the same time. In this case. China should combine its own economy, resources and environment condition to implement reasonable policies to reduce emissions, and it should cope with the international public opinion pressure under the premise of our country's stability economic growth and sustainable development. In China, the initial allocation of carbon emission permits in different provinces is an important issue. It's not only related to whether China can achieve the carbon dioxide emission reduction targets, but also the total control of the national carbon dioxide and the establishment of carbon emissions trading market. The author analyzes and studies the subject.First, this paper introduces the environment problem of carbon dioxide emissions and the carbon market and carbon emission rights allocation theory. It analyzes the status quo of China's provincial carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of Chinese economic development, energy consumption structure and energy consumption intensity. Then, combined with multiple influence factors, the author uses multiple linear regression model to predict Chinese carbon dioxide emissions in 2020, and the predicted result is 11.89874 billion tons.Second, considering the total carbon dioxide emissions control and trace back to the grandfather allocation methods, this paper studies the carbon dioxide emissions in the initial distribution of the eight areas of our country based on the Shapley value method. The research results show that the Northern coast, the Eastern coast, the Southern coast and the Central region get more carbon dioxide emissions by the Shapley value method, but the Northeast and the Beijing-Tianjin get less because this method considers multiple factors such as geographical factors, carbon flow compared with the grandfather allocation method. The Shapley value allocation method is more comprehensive and less controversial, and it is easy to be received for business and participants as well.Finally, the author evaluates the fairness of the grandfather allocation method based on the the economics theory of the Gini coefficient and the Theil coefficient. According to the results, this method has higher fairness from the index of population, GDP and environmental protection investment, but it is questionable from the point of carbon sink. The unfairness of the allocation method mainly comes from Hebei, Shandong. Liaoning and other provinces based on the Theil coefficient and the evaluation matrix.According to the theoretical analysis of this article, this paper gives the corresponding policies and recommendations in view of the different provinces and cities in the future.