China's Provincial Carbon Emissions Analysis Based On Projection Pursuit Model

With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization in our country, the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions generated from burning of fossil fuels are rising,on one hand it makes our country environment deteriorated sharply, on the other hand it also produces a lot of stress to our country's energy supply. Because the level of industry development is low in our country, the industrial structure is unreasonable, the energy structure mainly consisted of coal is congenital imbalance and the efficiency of energy utilization is low, it restricts the development of low carbon economy seriously in our country.In such a backdrop, according to the actual situation the Chinese government proposes the development of energy conservation and emissions reduction, which is the important way to upgrade industrial structure, optimize the energy structure, improve the ecological environment and achieve low carbon development. Through energy conservation and emissions reduction we can realize the goal of low carbon, at the same time it does not affect us to maximize the economic development, and related technical innovation is also a new economic growth point, therefore our country need to vigorously promote energy conservation and emissions reduction. In view of this, this paper studies the development level of China's provincial low carbon economy and analyzes the factor of carbon emissions and the diversity of carbon emissions spatial distribution pattern, which has great significance to guide China's carbon reduction and low carbon economic development.This paper is organized from the following three aspects. Specifically, carbon emissions of various provinces in China are calculated with spatial difference discussion using the listing IPCC2006 act 2003-2012 China based on the panel data of 30 provinces covering 2003-2012. Secondly, determining various influencing factors of China's provincial carbon emissions by Kaya identities and then clustering provincial carbon emissions to determine optimal projection direction by projection pursuit method based on accelerating genetic algorithm, are conducted. Results show the development level of low carbon economy and four regions classification of China's carbon emissions. Thirdly, application of LMDI decomposition to decompose carbon emissions influence factors of four regions. Through calculation of the model, finally the contribution rate of our country's carbon dioxide emissions growth influenced by various factors is obtained. The various factors are summarized and classified and the effect of carbon emissions intensity, energy structure,industrial structure, population size and economic growth is analyzed respectively.Finally,based on LMDI decomposition result of different scale regional carbon emissions, influential factors of targeted emissions control measures are put forward. This study is crucial in enriching the theory of low carbon economy and method, and providing theoretical support.